More evidence we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum
h/t Benny Peiser – the UK MET office has published a study which suggests solar activity is currently plummeting, the fastest rate of decline in 9300 years. The study also raises the odds of Maunder Minimum style conditions by 2050 from 8% to 15 – 20%.
Figure 1: Variations in solar forcing for Total Solar Irradiance (W m−2) and ultraviolet irradiance in the 200–320 nm spectral band (W m−2) relative to the mean of the repeated cycle in CTRL-8.5 for (a) CTRL-8.5 (black), (b) EXPT-A (blue) and (c) EXPT-B (red). The value of this mean is 1,366.2 W m−2 for TSI and 27.4 W m−2 for the ultraviolet band.
Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
The abstract of the study;
The past few decades have been characterized by a period of relatively high solar activity. However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the…
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And this from yesterday:
“Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to ‘mini ice age’ levels: Sun driven by double dynamo”
Thanks for the link, I have posted the article
Fastest rate of decline in 9,300 years? Considering we are 12,000 years into an interglacial, which always last 10,000 to 12,000 years, could this really be the start of the next glacial period? I’ve not heard of any scientific inquiry into whether the next mini-ice age could start the next glaciation. The increased albedo of the mini-ice age could possibly push us over the edge.