Just Weather: Mt Shasta – 14 to 18 feet of snow in next 72 hours

176 – 218 inches of snow. In three days!

  • This Afternoon Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 85 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow. Could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 21. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
  • Friday Snow showers. Could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 15 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 80 to 85 mph decreasing to 70 to 75 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.
  • Saturday Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.
  • Saturday Night Snow. Could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.
  • Sunday Snow. Could be heavy at times. High near 18. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Here are the total snowfall (max values) forecast for the event:

39″ Thursday

43 ” Thurs night

29″ Friday

27″ Friday night

28″ Saturday

35″ Saturday night

17″ Sunday

H/T to Ice Age Now for link.

 

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On the Cusp of a Long Long Winter?

Russ Steele

When Mother Nature decides it is time from some snow we earthling have to learn to cope with the consequences, even if it is not officially winter yet and global warming is everywhere:

China: The biggest snowfall in 52 years.

Snow caused power outages in 57 villages, brought down thousands of trees and killed numerous domestic animals.

Temperatures fell by as much as 14 degrees below zero in some areas.

Japan: Blackouts in more than 56,000 households in Hokkaido Prefecture

Hokkaido Electric Power company said the snowstorm has affected power transmission cables in the cities of Muroran, Noboribetsu, Toyako, and other cities and municipalities.

The Japanese Meteorological Agency warned of continued snowfall through this evening, with cumulative snow expected to reach as much as 16 inches (40 cm) in the heavy-hit southern coastal areas of Hokkaido through tomorrow afternoon.

Canada: More than four times the monthly average

David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said he was shocked to see that the 55 to 60 centimetres (about 23½ inches) of snow that has fallen on Regina this month has already surpassed all of last winter’s total of 52 cm.

With a week left in November, Regina has already broken the monthly record of 53.7 cm set in 1941.

The snowfall amounts are also surprising because the bulk occurred over five or six days, Phillips added.

“It’s happened in huge, almost Paul Bunyan-like snowfalls,” he said.

“Not to scare you, but whenever there has been a November with lots of snow, it seems to me you end up with a snowy winter.”Since 1883, Regina has received an average of 13.8 cm of snow in November.

United Kingdom: Snow and cold on the way after flooding rains.

The mercury is expected to plunge to -15C with widespread snowfall by Saturday kicking off an “Arctic week” and a month of winter misery for much of the UK.

In the first taste of what promises to be one of the UK’s coldest winters in a 100 years, long-range forecasters warn that tonight’s cold snap heralds a freezing winter ahead.

According to the Daily Mail, temperatures could plummet to minus 3°C this week and as low as minus 20°c (4°f) in some areas through December and January.

H/T to Ice Age Now for some of the links.

Frost damage hits late season Chilean blueberries | Fresh Fruit Portal

Shorter growing seasons is a sign that the next grand minimum is on the way.

California Giant Berries South America manager Nader Musleh, told http://www.freshfruitportal.com the amount of damage to his company’s producers depended on the area, with some growers losing 80% of their crop while others lost 10%.

via Frost damage hits late season Chilean blueberries | Fresh Fruit Portal.

Sunspots not an indicator of solar cycle

By Stuart Gary

Underlying solar cycle activity can’t be predicted by sunspot numbers (NASA/TRACE)

A new study of ice core samples has found the link between sunspot activity and the Sun’s solar cycle isn’t as strong as previously thought

Researchers have found the Sun’s eleven-year solar cycle continued normally during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1715, when sunspot activity was unusually low.

This was also a time when northern Europe experienced unusually cold conditions.

The discovery, reported in Geophysical Research Letters, comes as the Sun approaches solarmax, the climax of its cycle, when its north and south magnetic poles flip.

The researchers were looking for solar cycle variations by studying beryllium-10 isotope concentrations in ice core samples.

Showers of heavy isotopes including beryllium-10, are produced when cosmic rays, a high-energy mix of protons, electrons, and atomic nuclei from outside the solar system, collide with molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Increased solar wind activity as the Sun moves towards solar max, reduces the amount of cosmic rays reaching Earth.

Time scales

By studying beryllium-10 levels in ice cores, scientists can determine the level of solar activity at a given time.

Drawing on two independent ice core records, Owens and colleagues modelled solar activity back to 1610, before the Maunder Minimum.

“Between 1650 to 1710 there were no sunspots recorded, even though there were lots of professional astronomers around at the time,” says study lead author Dr Mathew Owens of the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.

“Yet despite the lack of sunspots, the Sun’s magnetic field was still churning over its natural eleven-year solar cycle.”

“It shows sunspots are a symptom not a cause for the solar cycle.”

Read the rest of the article HERE.

 

Here is a quote from the post that indicates readers may want to read the full post:

NOTE –  A REASONABLE CASE CAN BE MADE THAT THE WARMING PEAKS OF A 60 YEAR  PDO CYCLE AND THE 1000 YEAR SOLAR CYCLE COINCIDED AT 2000 +/- AND WE ARE LIKELY ON THE COOLING SLOPE OF BOTH.
The clearest empirical measure of  solar activity is the solar magnetic field strength. On an empirical basis Livingston and Penn have shown that the decline in solar magnetic field strength suggests that sunspots could disappear by about 2015 signalling THE START OF A NEW  MAUNDER MINIMUM WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

Watts Up With That?

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting.

Guest post by Dr. Norman Page

Introduction.

Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly longer. The major natural factors  controlling climate change have also become obvious.Unfortunately the general public has been bombarded by the scientific and media and political establishments with anthropogenic global  warming  – anti CO2 propaganda based on the misuse and misrepresentation of already shoddy IPCC “science”   for political ,commercial and personal ends.
The IPCC climate science community  largely abandoned empirical Baconian inductive scientific principles  and  built  worthless climate models based on  unfounded assumptions designed to show that anthropogenic CO2 was the driving force behind changing climate. Most of the IPCC output is useless as a tool for predicting…

View original post 1,916 more words

The 11-Year Solar Cycle Continued During Maunder Minimum

Russ Steele

The Space Daily has the details in a story titled: The 11-Year Solar Cycle Continues During Prolonged Sunspot Minimum

Streaming into the solar system at nearly the speed of light, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are a high-energy mix of protons, electrons, and atomic nuclei.

As they pass into reach of the outflowing solar wind, the propagation of GCRs is inhibited. Galactic cosmic rays that make it to Earth interact with the atmosphere, creating a shower of heavy isotopes including beryllium-10.

Beryllium-10 isotope concentrations recorded in ice cores provide a long-term, high temporal resolution record of galactic cosmic ray flux.

The rate of GCRs flowing into the solar system is thought to be relatively stable, so researchers suspect that shifts in these long-term isotope records must be driven by a change in the rate at which GCRs reach Earth.

The propagation of GCRs to Earth, in turn, depends on the open solar flux, the fraction of the total solar magnetic field that is carried out into the solar system by the solar wind.

Open solar flux increases with sunspot number and shifts with the orientation of the heliospheric current sheet, the wavy surface where the Sun’s the magnetic field switches polarity from northward to southward.

Thus isotope concentration records can serve as a long-scale record of solar activity.

Drawing on two independent ice core records, Owens et al. modeled the open solar flux back to 1610, a period that includes the Maunder Minimum, a 65-year stretch starting in 1650 when astronomers observed hardly any sunspots.

They find that during this period, beryllium-10 isotope concentrations continued to oscillate following the roughly 11-year solar cycle, despite the dearth of sunspots.

They suggest that the heliospheric current sheet’s cyclical behavior didn’t change during the period, and hence the regular cycling of the open solar flux, and the changing penetration of galactic cosmic rays, continued.

This tosses a wrinkle in the theory that increased GCR during a grand minimum was responsible for the colder climate, due to increased cloud cover. It will be interesting to see what the critics will have to say about the paper:

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations