THE BLOB Has Dissipated

This post was intended as an update to the California Drought Report #47 on my  Sierra Foothills Commentary Blog. The reported blob and it’s consequences are no longer present. My apology for cluttering up The Next Grand Minimum.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale


Animation 1 – Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps from the CMC Environment Canada (September 17, 2016 and October 27, 2016)

The Blob was the name given to the area of elevated sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern extratropical North Pacific. It formed in 2013, coupling with a ridge of high pressure that impacted weather patterns across North America into 2015.  The Blob was the primary contributor to the reported record high global sea surface temperature anomalies in 2014, and contributed to the record highs in 2015 along with the 2015 portion of the 2014/15/16 El Niño. (See General Discussions 2 and 3 of my free ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1.  Also see the series of posts about The Blob for additional general information.)

After a noticeable drop in the sea surface temperature anomalies for that region…

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Study: fewer Caribbean hurricanes during Maunder Minimum of solar activity

I posted this before I read this comment:

Willis Eschenbach 

Riiiight … it is a spliced record, and the anomalous period is right before the splice. Not only that but the puff piece above is pre-publication, so they get to put their claims out there with no chance of anyone even reading their study, much less falsifying it, until after their version has gone round the world. No data, no code, no methods section, no nothing.

Sorry, but to me that’s scientific malfeasance. I’ll remember the names of the authors so I can avoid them in future.


When reading the study keep Willis’s critique in mind


Watts Up With That?

“We didn’t go looking for the Maunder Minimum, it just popped out of the data.”

Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005


Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era

Records of Spanish shipwrecks combined with tree-ring records show the period 1645 to 1715 had the fewest Caribbean hurricanes since 1500, according to new University of Arizona-led research. The study is the first to use shipwrecks as a proxy for hurricane activity.

The researchers found a 75 percent reduction in the number of Caribbean hurricanes from 1645-1715, a time with little sunspot activity and cool temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

“We’re the first to use shipwrecks to study hurricanes in the past,” said lead author Valerie Trouet, an associate professor in the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. “By combining shipwreck data and tree-ring data, we are extending the Caribbean hurricane record back in time and that…

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Volcanos and Climate Change

Cross posted from Sierra Foothills Commentary.

Sierra Foothill Commentary

It is not clear why, but when the earth cools and sunspots are at their minimum, volcanic activity on earth seems to increase, especially super volcanos that leave a significant eruption signature. See graphic below:

Volcanic activity
The most dangerous super volcano in the US is a volcanic plume that has been sliding northeast, across Idaho for millions of years and last erupting about 640,000 years ago in north-western Wyoming. The Yellowstone Caldera was created by a massive volcanic eruption approximately 640,000 years ago. Subsequent lava flows filled in much of the caldera.

UK Express has a volcano warning:

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34…

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Climate and Human Civilization over the last 18,000 years

I recommend readers examine this post at WUWT as it puts multiple grand minimums in perspective, in that they follow long warm periods which promoted human growth and expansion. It is interesting to note that the cold periods were accompanied by long-term droughts. Droughts that disrupted civilizations and in many cases promote collapse. Highly recommend reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

This is an updated timeline of climatic events and human history for the last 18,000 years. The original timeline was posted in 2013. The updated full size (Ansi E size or 34×44 inches) Adobe Reader version 8 PDF can be downloaded here or by clicking on Figure 1. It prints pretty well on 11×17 inch paper and very well on 17×22 inch paper or larger. To see the timeline in full resolution or to print it, you must download it. It is not copyrighted, but please acknowledge the author if you use it.


Figure 1 -click for a much larger, printable poster (PDF)

References to the images and data are given in this essay as hyperlinks. I’ve done my best to verify the accuracy of the content by checking multiple sources. When references had different dates for the same event, I chose the most commonly…

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A Dalton-like Amplitude for Solar Cycle 25

Some insight into potential solar activity during the next solar cycle. A Dalton Minimum will most likely not be as severe as a Maunder. Only time will solve the issue.  The comment discussion is most interesting, highly recommended reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by David Archibald

The most accurate method for predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle is to use the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. But with solar minimum likely to be three years away, who can wait that long?

The strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum is a very accurate indicator of the maximum amplitude of the following solar cycle, as per this graph from Dr David Hathaway of NASA:


Up until late 2014, solar polar magnetic field strength was still quite weak as shown in this graph of the history of that parameter by solar cycle from the last four solar minima:


Over the last year the solar polar magnetic fields of Solar Cycle 24 have strengthened to almost the level of Solar Cycle 23 at the same stage. But for the previous two cycles, they also…

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1709; The Disparate Economic And Political Impact of Weather And Climate

Source: 1709; The Disparate Economic And Political Impact of Weather And Climate

I have reblogged this post by Tim Ball from WUWT so readers can read about the climate during the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum. We might see a repeat of these climate conditions during the Next Grand Minimum, although we will have modern heating systems, if we still have some oil and coal to fire the boilers.

Gross Suppression Of Science …Former NOAA Meteorologist Says Employees “Were Cautioned Not To Talk About Natural Cycles”

Thanks to P Gosselin at the NoTricksZone for posting this essay by former NOAA meteorologist David Dilley. Gosselin writes David Dilly is a former NOAA meteorologist and “submitted an essay below that has 2 parts: 1) How the government has been starving researchers who hold alternative opinions of funding, and 2) climate cycles show we are starting a cooling period.’

Original post is HERE.
Suppressing the Truth – the Next Global Cooling Cycle

By David Dilley, former NOAA meteorologist

For over 15 years an inordinate proportion of government and corporate research grants have been awarded to universities for a single specific purpose: to prove human activities and the burning of fossil fuels are the main driving mechanisms causing global warming.

Unfortunately agendas by strong arm politics and the suppression of contrary views have become the primary tools used to manipulate the media, local and state governments (and in turn the general public) into believing what they want us to believe.

Many former research department heads, such as Dr. Reid Bryson (known as the Father of Climatology), openly state that research grants are driven by politics, and in order to receive a government grant you have to play the game. Topics for grants go with the political wind.

In the mid 1990s government grants were typically advertised in such a way to indicate that conclusions should show a connection to human activity as the cause for anthropogenic global warming. The result: most of the research published in journals became one-sided and this became the primary information tool for media outlets.

According to some university researchers who were former heads of their departments, if a university even mentioned natural cycles, they were either denied future grants, or lost grants. And it is common knowledge that United States government employees within NOAA were cautioned not to talk about natural cycles. It is well known that most university research departments live or die via the grant system. What a great way to manipulate researchers in Europe, Australia and the United States.

Disinvited, views suppressed

Not only governments manipulate, but so do some universities in order to protect their grants. A perfect example happened in 2012 when I contacted the Eagle Hill Institute in Steuben Maine USA to see if they would be interested in a climate change lecture. It should be noted that the institute has very close ties with the University of Maine. So I indicted that my lecture would involve information on natural climate cycles, and they responded saying, “That is fine.” Then In May of 2013 they asked me to speak at their lecture series on June 29th – an invitation that I accepted. They even consequently advertised the event and posted it on their online calendar.

All seemed well as I prepared for the lecture. But then came the manipulation and suppression of views. Just four days prior to the lecture, three people from the University of Maine viewed our web site ( The next morning, just 3 days prior to the June 29th lecture, I received an email from Eagle Hill stating that my “lecture is canceled due to a staffing shortage”. Upon checking their web site, the calendar did show my lecture as being canceled, but carried the notation that “we hope to have a different lecture on the 29th”.

So what happened with the staffing shortage? A news service called “The Maine Wire“ interviewed the President of Eagle Hill, and he said that the University of Maine “felt some people in the audience may be uncomfortable hearing Mr. Dilley’s lecture”.

What did they want to hide from the public?

The IPCC and most anthropogenic believers want to maintain the belief that global warming during the past 100 years has been caused by human activity alone, and this is why most of their climate talks and lectures do not even mention prior global warming cycles.

The politically driven United Nations IPCC and United States global warming ruse will likely end up being one of the greatest scandals of the 21st century. If left unchecked it will continue to lead the world down a dangerous path that could jeopardize the lives of millions of people. Many have been led to believe the earth is heading into catastrophic global warming. Is this a political ruse, and will it likely blindside governments within the next few years? When it comes to climate, history does repeat itself.

Cooling has already begun

Alternating global warming and cooling cycles have historically occurred and ended like clockwork every 220 to 230 years, with nearly 4000 cycles occurring during the past half million years. The last global cooling cycle began around 1795, or about 220 years ago. If the time clock strikes on time as it has over and over again throughout history, the upcoming cooling cycle has already begun in the Arctic and Antarctic, as shown in my video, “Is Climate Change Dangerous?”

Dilley_1Earth has experienced 5 global cooling cycles during the past 1,000 years (soon to be 6). The initial 20 to 40 years of a new global cooling cycle are historically the coldest period, and associated with the most rapid cooling (see attached graphic). If a large volcanic eruption occurs during this period, large amounts of sulfur dioxide will be emitted into the atmosphere with the cooling cycle being exacerbated by sulfate aerosols floating in the upper atmosphere ( The sulfate aerosols are highly reflective and can cool the earth for 1 to 3 years, with the end result being a year of no summer in some regions of the world.

Major volcanoes during cooling periods

Of the past 5 cooling cycles dating back to 900 AD, 4 were associated with strong volcanic eruptions during the initial 15 to 25 years of the cooling cycles. The volcanic explosive index (VEI) for these eruptions were between 5 and 7 on a VEI scale ranging from 1 to 8. The last occurrence was in 1815, when VEI 6 Tambora erupted. The combination of this massive volcanic eruption occurring some 15 to 20 years into the new global cooling cycle was instrumental in causing the year of no summer in 1816. During the next several years, nearly one third of Europe perished from famine, plague and civil unrest. Back then the earth had a population of 1 billion to feed; today there are 7 billion.

Similar cooling cycles and eruptions occurred in the year 1600 when VEI 6 Huaynaputina (Peru) occurred about 20 years into the new cooling cycle. In 1350 Rangitoto (New Zealand) about 25 years into a cooling cycle, and in the year 834 Eldgja (Iceland) a great VEI 6 eruption occurred about 25 years into the new cooling cycle. The current global warming cycle is now ending.

Shouldn’t governments around the world be preparing for a major event that is by far more dangerous than any warming cycle could possibly be?


This is the real danger, the public is being prepare for anthropogenic global warming and Mother Nature is turing down the global thermostat. Preparing for a warm climate, when it is cooling, the general population of low information consumers, are going to be blindsided and that does not bode well for the current political leaders in California who are the band leaders for AGW. Stay Tuned.