Weak Solar Activity And La Nina Forebode Cooling Temperatures For The Months Ahead

By P Gosselin on 13. December 2017

The Sun in November 2017

By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated and edited by P Gosselin)

In November the sun was unusually quiet with respect to activity. The observed sunspot number (SSN) was merely 5.7, which is only 14% of what is typically normal for month number 108 into the cycle. The current cycle number 24 began in December 2008. The sun was completely spotless 19 of 30 days in November.

At the end of the month some activity appeared, but only at a very low level. The following chart depicts the current cycle’s activity:

solar_acrivity
Figure 1: The monthly SSN values for the current solar cycle 24 (red) 108 months into the cycle, the curve for the mean of the previous 23 cycles (blue), and the similar solar cycle number 5 (black). Enlarged

The next chart shows a comparison of all observed solar cycles thus far:

Solar_activity2
Figure 2: The monthly accumulated anomalies of the cycles up to 108 months into the cycle. Cycle number 24 has taken third place for the most inactive. Enlarged

Icecap Note: The ability with today’s advanced technology to see the smallest spots or pores probably inflates the number of spots and diminishes the number of spotless days.

The situation thus remains unchanged: such a weak solar cycle has not been witnessed in 200 years. It is anticipated with quite high certainty that also the upcoming solar cycle number 25 will be about as weak, because the sun’s polar fields are about as strong as they were during the minimum between cycle number 23 and cycle number 24.

The very weak solar north pole so far has recovered significantly over the past few months since June. What this means now and for the future can be seen graphically at the chart posted here. You can find the latest information at http://www.solen.info/solar.

LaNina is here

An update to our last post here is surely of interest. We were sure of a La Nina by the end of December, and in the meantime, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology officially announced a La Nina in its most recent bulletin. The current model forecast shows continued falling sea surface temperatures along the equatorial eastern Pacific until about February, 2018:

LaNinia
Figure 3: The model for El Nino/La Nina in the Pacific, Source: NOAA. All forecasts point to a moderately strong La Nina event until spring. A powerful La Nina such as the one observed in 2011/12 is currently not projected by the models (which incidentally did not even forecast a La Nina just a few months ago). Enlarged

The impacts on global temperatures lag behind by about 3 to 4 months, and so we should expect a La Nina dip by spring.

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Historically Quiet Sun Headed Towards Next Solar Minimum

by Meteorologist Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc.

Overview

Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906 and by some measures, it is the third weakest since regular observations began around 1755. This historically weak solar cycle continues a weakening trend in solar irradiance output since solar cycle 21 peaked around 1980 and the sun is fast-approaching the next solar minimum. The last solar minimum lasted from 2008 to 2009 and the sun was as quiet during that time as it has been since 1978. The sun is likely to enter the next solar minimum phase within three years or so. The sun has been spotless for 26% of the time in 2017 (90 days) and the blank look should increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading into the next solar minimum.

The importance of the sun

The sun is the main driver of all weather and climate on Earth and without it, life on Earth would not exist. The sun’s output energy is not constant, however, as it varies over the course of about 11 years which is the average time period of a solar cycle (a.k.a., sunspot cycle), typically taking about 5 1/2 years to move from the quieter period of solar minimum to the more turbulent solar maximum phase. Over the course of one solar cycle, the sun’s emitted energy varies on average by about 0.1 percent. That may not sound like a lot, but the sun emits a large amount of energy – 1,361 watts per square meter – and fluctuations of just a tenth of a percent can affect Earth.

Sun_spots_count

The accumulated sunspot anomaly from the mean of the previous 23 cycles – 107 months into the cycle. Source

Third weakest solar cycle since 1755

Solar cycle 24 began in 2008 which puts us about nine years into the current cycle. An analysis of the current solar cycle (#24) finds it to be the third weakest since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle. The mean value is noted at zero and solar cycle 24 is running 4048 spots less than the mean at the time of the study. In fact, the researchers claim that there have been only two weaker cycles since systematic observations began in 1755 – solar cycle 5 which began in April 1798 and solar cycle 6 which ended in May 1823 – both of these occurred during the extended period of low solar activity known as the “Dalton Minimum”. The seven cycles preceded by solar cycle 24 actually had more sunspots than the mean.

The rest of the Article is HERE. Dorian discusses the decline in solar irradiance over the last 40 years and new Space Station energy sensors.

 

When the sun pulses X-rays, Earth’s ionosphere pulses in sync

The earth’s upper atmosphere has a closer link to the sun than was previously know. When sun burps X-Rays the Ionosphere pulse in sync.

Full article at is at WUWT, but here is the interesting part.

. . .the team of scientists — led by Laura Hayes, a solar physicist who splits her time between NASA Goddard and Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland, and her thesis adviser Peter Gallagher — looked at how the lowest layer of the ionosphere, called the D-region, responded to pulsations in a solar flare.

“This is the region of the ionosphere that affects high-frequency communications and navigation signals,” Hayes said. “Signals travel through the D-region, and changes in the electron density affect whether the signal is absorbed, or degraded.”

The scientists used data from very low frequency, or VLF, radio signals to probe the flare’s effects on the D-region. These were standard communication signals transmitted from Maine and received in Ireland. The denser the ionosphere, the more likely these signals are to run into charged particles along their way from a signal transmitter to its receiver. By monitoring how the VLF signals propagate from one end to the other, scientists can map out changes in electron density.

Pooling together the VLF data and X-ray and extreme ultraviolet observations from GOES and SDO, the team found the D-region’s electron density was pulsing in concert with X-ray pulses on the Sun. They published their results in the Journal of Geophysical Research on Oct. 17, 2017.

“X-rays impinge on the ionosphere and because the amount of X-ray radiation coming in is changing, the amount of ionization in the ionosphere changes too,” said Jack Ireland, a co-author on both studies and Goddard solar physicist. “We’ve seen X-ray oscillations before, but the oscillating ionosphere response hasn’t been detected in the past.”

Hayes and her colleagues used a model to determine just how much the electron density changed during the flare. In response to incoming radiation, they found the density increased as much as 100 times in just 20 minutes during the pulses — an exciting observation for the scientists who didn’t expect oscillating signals in a flare would have such a noticeable effect in the ionosphere. With further study, the team hopes to understand how the ionosphere responds to X-ray oscillations at different timescales, and whether other solar flares induce this response.

“This is an exciting result, showing Earth’s atmosphere is more closely linked to solar X-ray variability than previously thought,” Hayes said. “Now we plan to further explore this dynamic relationship between the Sun and Earth’s atmosphere.”

Both of these studies took advantage of the fact that we are increasingly able to track solar activity and space weather from a number of vantage points. Understanding the space weather that affects us at Earth requires understanding a dynamic system that stretches from the Sun all the way to our upper atmosphere — a system that can only be understood by tapping into a wide range of missions scattered throughout space.

I think we are about to learn the sun has more influence on our weather than we currently understand.  Your thoughts?

Future Volcanic Eruptions Will Screw With Climate Change. . .

Peter Hess at Inverse

Climate change doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Many factors contribute to it, not the least of which is volcanic activity. And while you probably think of a volcano in terms of the heat produced, the gas and dust it emits actually affect climate change a lot more than you might think.

In a study published Tuesday in Nature Communications, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research report that major volcanic eruptions could cause more disruption to the global climate than they have in the past. By examining the conditions that followed the eruption of the Indonesian volcano Mount Tambora in 1815, the Boulder, Colorado scientists predict what would happen if this type of major eruption occurred in 2085.

The potential alterations to the climate will not be in the Earth’s favor. While the scientists predict that the cooling that will follow a future eruption of that scale would be even more extreme, it will not offset the effects of a warming climate. Furthermore, they predict that the eruption will disrupt the water cycle, decreasing global precipitation.

The effects of a “volcanic winter” occur as the ash and smoke from an eruption obscure rays from the sun, decreasing their ability to heat the Earth. When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, thousands of people died instantly, and it is considered the most destructive eruption on Earth in 10,000 years. The dust and gas it emitted into the atmosphere altered global climate for a year afterward, which is why 1816 is known as “The Year Without a Summer.” Global temperatures dipped so severely that crops failed, even in places far away from the volcano. Farms in the northern United States suffered frost damage in August, as did farms in Europe. The massive volcanic eruption triggered a global subsistence crisis, which is estimated to have killed an additional 10,000 people.

Using computer climate models, the researchers of the new study concluded that, if an eruption like Mount Tambora’s happens in 2085, the Earth will cool up to 40 percent more than the 1815 eruption, assuming current rates of climate change continue. However, they also predict that the cooling will be spread out over several years.

The reason the temperature change will so drawn out, they explain, is because ocean temperature is becoming increasingly stratified — that is, separated into layers based on temperature. As this happens, the surface water in the ocean will be increasingly less able to moderate the cooling effects of the eruption, causing a longer and more severe cooling event. Because the cooling in 1815-1816 occurred at a time when ocean temperature was not as stratified, it was absorbed to some degree by the water.

Read the rest of the article HERE.

On the Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum?

 

One of the signs that we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum is an increase in the number late spring frosts and early on set of winter frost and snow.

The Bonsetreporting world wine production ‘to hit 50-year low due to extreem weather, even though they failed to mention it was due to severe spring frost.

Here are estimates of the drops in wine production by country:

• Italian production will fall 23% to 39.3 million hectolitres.

• French production will drop 19% to 36.7 million hectolitres … its worst harvest since 1945.

• Spanish production will be 15% lower at 33.5 million hectolitres.

• A hectolitre is 100 litres, equivalent to about 133 standard 750mL bottles.

The BBC may blame ‘extreme weather,’ but back in August the French agriculture minister presented a more honest picture, saying that the losses were “mainly attributable to the severe spring frost.”

Bitter cold struck twice within a week in April, ravaging fragile shoots and buds.

Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Hungary also experienced hard frosts this year, and were worried that wine harvests could fall by 30%, even up to 60% in some areas.

H/T to Ice Age Now

Waiting for the early winter cold. Stay tuned.

A massive hole just opened up in Antarctica’s ice and scientists can’t explain it

antarctic hole

Thanks to its usefulness as an indicator of how badly humans are messing up the Earth with global warming, scientists like to keep a pretty close eye on the ice in Antarctica. Now, a massive hole the size of Lake Superior has appeared many miles inland from where the ice meets the ocean, and scientists have little concrete explanation as to why it’s there.

The hole, which is called a polynya, is incredibly puzzling because of its odd behavior. This isn’t the first time it’s been spotted, having appeared last year for a brief period as well, and long before that it was detected back in the 1970s. However, it disappeared for several decades before showing back up, throwing a huge kink in many scientific explanations for its existence.

Source

Could the story above be related to this story below on undersea volcanos?

More than one million underwater volcanoes – Oregon State University

According to Oregon State University (OSU), there may be more than one million underwater volcanoes. Here’s how their website puts it:

“If an estimate of 4,000 volcanoes per million square kilometers on the floor of the Pacific Ocean is extrapolated for all the oceans than there are more than a million submarine (underwater) volcanoes. Perhaps as many as 75,000 of these volcanoes rise over half a mile (1 kilometer) above the ocean floor.”

Your thoughts? Are they related?

New York Times article “so full of nonsense that it is difficult to read”

From Ice Age Now:

Yesterday The New York Times ran an article refuting any ideas that the planet is cooling due to solar activity (or lack thereof). Joseph Kraig provides a wonderful rebuttal.

By Joseph Kraig

This article is so full of nonsense that it is difficult to read.

There is no universal ice melt. Though the article says ice is melting world wide and the oceans are rising, it is simply not true. The oceans are not rising and in places where it was supposed to rise it has actually gotten lower. Greenland saw a faster and larger increase in ice this year than ever recorded. The Glaciers in Alaska and California are both getting larger.

While the sun appears the same day after day it is not. There have been major increases in ultraviolet emissions during the 80’s and 90’s, those emissions are now falling, dramatically.

As long ago as the Maunder Minimum it was known that fewer sun spots cause cooler weather. We are now in a time that is bringing us to a Maunder type of minimum or Grand Minimum.

While it is true that temperatures have been rising (and falling) since the end of the last glaciation we are at the end or what should be the end of the inter-glacial period. We should appreciate any warming we can get.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is growing. Certainly humans contribute to that growth but the percentage of increase due to human industry is minuscule. In fact the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is minuscule. It has never been proven that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. There are much more effective greenhouse gases in our atmosphere such as water vapor and Methane.

There are other sciences discoveries that are changing the way scientist think about Global Warming. Who would have thought a couple decades ago that the stars sending their cosmic rays to us could affect our weather but they do, especially in solar minimums.

Ignorance rules our newspapers and much of society. The truth is out there for all to see but those who don’t like the truth lie and know because of our unwillingness to spend a little time reading that we won’t know any better. I refuse to believe the lies of the Mainstream press apparatus.