The Iceman Cometh?

Russ Steele:

Mike Lockwood :”He raised the likelihood of another grand minimum to 25% (from 10% three years previously). “

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Could a quiescent sun portend a new little ice age: a chilly era for humanity and agriculture?

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

President Obama, Al Gore and other alarmists continue to prophesy manmade global warming crises, brought on by our “unsustainable” reliance on fossil fuels. Modelers like Mike Mann and Gavin Schmidt conjure up illusory crisis “scenarios” based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions now drive climate change. A trillion-dollar Climate Crisis industry self-servingly echoes their claims.

But what if these merchants of fear are wrong? What if the sun refuses to cooperate with the alarmists?

“The sun is almost completely blank,” meteorologist Paul Dorian notes. Virtually no sunspots darken the blinding yellow orb. “The main driver of all weather and climate … has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. Not since February 1906 has there…

View original 1,198 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Solar Cycle Update

Russ Steele:

I am reposting David Archibald’s post, but I recommend that readers look at the comments. As expected Leif Lsvalgaard does not agree, but he provides some useful information. I found most of thoughtful comments to be interesting.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

Two useful things we would like to know are the length of Solar Cycle 24 and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Figure 1 below shows the NOAA version of Solar Cycle 24 progression with the 23/24 transition copied onto the end of their projection. This crude method (we don’t have another) suggests that the 24/25 transition will be at the end of 2021 which would make Solar Cycle 24 twelve years long. Solar physicists have generally given up forecasting Solar Cycle 25 amplitude. The only extant forecast is Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of an amplitude of seven. In the bigger picture, almost a decade after Schatten and Tobiska forecast a return to a Maunder Minimum-like level of activity, another solar physicist, Mark Giampapa of the National Solar Observatory in Tuscon, Arizona, is of the opinion that “we are heading into a Maunder Minimum” that…

View original 479 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

GLOBAL WARMING? LOW SUN SPOT CYCLE COULD MEAN ‘LITTLE ICE AGE’

Story in the Breitbart News this morning:

The sun is known to be the main driver of all weather and climate. With 99.86% of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of violent fire in the sky, has recently gone quiet in what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. Weak solar cycles have been associated with very benign “space weather” that can cause a “Little Ice Age.”

ooo

Strong solar activity has been studied by scientists since 1759 because it has a direct impact on change in temperatures in the “thermosphere,” which extends from about 56 miles to between 311 to 621 miles above the Earth. The thermosphere sits between the mesosphere below and exosphere above. As the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, temperatures rise and fall in the thermosphere, depending on the amount of highly energetic solar radiation that is release from flares and sunspot.

ooo

There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder and lasting from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton and lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Both historical periods coincided with colder-than-normal global temperatures and are often referred to by scientists as the “Little Ice Age.”

Physicists have found a direct relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. In times of low solar activity that result in weak solar winds, more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere. That, in turn, has been shown to generate an increase in certain types of cloud cover that can act to cool the Earth.

The current historically weak solar cycle is a continuation of the twenty-year downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began in “Solar Cycle 22.” If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles, then the Earth could suffer another “grand minimum” event, similar to the “Maunder” and “Dalton” that caused the last “Little Ice Age.”

A quiet sun is beginning to attract more media attention.

Posted in Analysis, Cosmic Rays, Dalton, Maunder, Solar | 1 Comment

Blank Sun

550x550xsolar_image.jpg.pagespeed.ic.nK5kQUoLBU

The sun is now virtually blank during the weakest solar cycle in more than a century

The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun’s X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.

More HERE:

http://vencoreweather.com/2015/04/30/845-am-the-sun-is-now-virtually-blank-during-the-weakest-solar-cycle-in-more-than-a-century/

Posted in Analysis, Solar | 4 Comments

Claim: Climate change ‘may’ be responsible for the abrupt collapse of Tibetan civilization around 2000BC

Russ Steele:

If we have another grand minimum and temperatures cool, farmers will have to adjust the crops that they grow. This is one example of how the climate has an impact on food supplies.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

From Washington State University: Closing the Case on an Ancient Archeological Mystery

Solving 4,000-year-old mystery helps WSU archeologist find useful resource for a warmer future

Barley cultivation in Jiuzhaigou National Park hasn't changed much in nearly 2,000 years. The park is located in the Min Shan mountain range, Northern Sichuan in South Western China. Credit: Washington State University Barley cultivation in Jiuzhaigou National Park hasn’t changed much in nearly 2,000 years. The park is located in the Min Shan mountain range, Northern Sichuan in South Western China. Credit: Washington State University

PULLMAN, Wash.–Climate change may be responsible for the abrupt collapse of civilization on the fringes of the Tibetan Plateau around 2000 B.C.

WSU archaeologist Jade D’Alpoim Guedes and an international team of researchers found that cooling global temperatures at the end of the Holocene Climatic Optimum, a 4,000 year period of warm weather, would have made it impossible for ancient people on the Tibetan Plateau to cultivate millet, their primary food source.

Guedes’ team’s research recently was published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Her results provide…

View original 568 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

California Drought Report #10

Russ Steele:

Reblogged from Sierra Foothill Commentary my local politics blog.

Originally posted on Sierra Foothill Commentary:

The New York Times: In California, a Wet Era May Be Ending

The drought, now in its fourth year, is by many measures the worst since the state began keeping records of temperature and precipitation in the 1800s. And with a population now close to 39 million and a thirsty, $50 billion agricultural industry, California has been affected more by this drought than by any previous one.

But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.

The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one.

Source New York Times Source New York Times

After introducing history the writer starts blabbering about global warming, which is not relevant to historic droughts that resulted…

View original 297 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

The Large Cliff Top Pueblos at Mesa Verde, Colorado and Treeflow Data from Lees Ferry, Arizona

Russ Steele:

“It is interesting to note that the Colorado River discharge increased during the Medieval Warm Period and declined during the Little Ice Age.”

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Samuel I Outcalt

The Data: The major tourist attractions at Mesa Verde National Park (near Cortez, Colorado) are the large cliff top pueblos inhabited by the Anasazi between 1128 and 1273 AD. To explore the relationship between the Anasazi occupancy of these large pueblos and climate change a 101 year center weighted moving average filter was applied to the Annual Treeflow Discharge Estimate of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona (180 miles due west). These discharge estimates were calculated using the parameters derived from the linear regression of annual modern stream discharge [dependent variable] and modern regional tree ring data sets [independent variables].

The regression parameters were then used to estimate stream discharge at the gage site for length of the tree ring records. The explained variance of the tree ring data sets used in this reconstruction varied between 57% and 77%. The reconstruction is…

View original 193 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment