Global cooling will follow El Nino – more risk on the downside

By Joseph D’Aleo, CC

El Ninos always produce a global pop in temperatures. So expect that this next 6 months or so even in the only accurate data, from satellites. Strong El Ninos usually are followed by a pendulum like strong La Nina with a cooling. Major volcanoes can override or diminish any warming as El Chicon and Mt. St. Helens did in the early to mid 1980s and Pinatubo/Cerro Hudson did in the early to mid 1990s.

That said, there are many active volcanos around the world and many more unrestful which could erupt. There seems to be more active volcanos when the sun is quiet, but I cannot find any specific studies. Here is a link to a list of active and unrestful volcanos: http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

Joe D’Aleo quotes Russian and Australian scientist supporting the view that we are in for some prolonged cooling following the El Niño, you can read rest on his blog post HERE.

Some updated graphics to support the comment discussion (07-17-15):

Russian projections:

Screen_shot_2015-07-17_at_10.19.56_AM

Livingston and Penn sunspot study:
Figure#2 2017_Projection

La Nina and El Nino history showing that cool periods rapidly follow warm periods. make_enso_plot_v2

Posted in Analysis, Maunder, Solar | 23 Comments

More Evidence for a Future Grand Minimum

irregularhea

From Phys.org:

A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

Read more HERE.

Posted in Analysis, Maunder, Solar | 7 Comments

UK MET Office: Fastest decline in solar activity since the last ice age

Russ Steele:

More evidence we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

h/t Benny Peiser – the UK MET office has published a study which suggests solar activity is currently plummeting, the fastest rate of decline in 9300 years. The study also raises the odds of Maunder Minimum style conditions by 2050 from 8% to 15 – 20%.

Variations in solar forcing for Total Solar Irradiance (W m−2) and ultraviolet irradiance in the 200–320 nm spectral band (W m−2) relative to the mean of the repeated cycle in CTRL-8.5 for (a) CTRL-8.5 (black), (b) EXPT-A (blue) and (c) EXPT-B (red). The value of this mean is 1,366.2 W m−2 for TSI and 27.4 W m−2 for the ultraviolet band. Figure 1: Variations in solar forcing for Total Solar Irradiance (W m−2) and ultraviolet irradiance in the 200–320 nm spectral band (W m−2) relative to the mean of the repeated cycle in CTRL-8.5 for (a) CTRL-8.5 (black), (b) EXPT-A (blue) and (c) EXPT-B (red). The value of this mean is 1,366.2 W m−2 for TSI and 27.4 W m−2 for the ultraviolet band.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

The abstract of the study;

The past few decades have been characterized by a period of relatively high solar activity. However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the…

View original 402 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

The Guardian has the details:

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.

However, the study said any potential weakening in solar activity would have only a small effect on temperature rises at a worldwide level, delaying the warming caused by emissions from cars, factories and power plants by around two years.

The sun has been in a period of high activity for the past few decades. But scientists believe there is now as much as a 20% chance of a weaker period of activity, known as a grand solar minimum, occurring in the next 40 years.

“Even if you do go into Maunder minimum conditions it’s not going to combat global warming, the sun’s not going to save us,” said lead author Sarah Ineson at the Met Office. The Maunder minimum is the name for the sun’s weak period during 1645-1715, when the Thames froze solidly enough for eyewitnesses to report horse-driven carriages crossing it.

Climate change means such sights in the second half of the century would not occur, since the sun’s cooling effect would only reduce manmade temperature rises in northern Europe and the eastern US by 0.4-0.8C. Such offsetting was not a “large signal”, Ineson said, although the study found there would be more frosty days in those regions than there would be without the weaker solar activity.

More details HERE.

We are the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum, and the real issue is the impact on agriculture, and the ability to feed the worlds 6 + billions. The population was less than a billion during the Maunder Minimum, and millions starved to death.  What do you think will happen when the next Grand Minimum arrives?

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, Maunder, Solar | 6 Comments

An IT expert’s view on climate modelling

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Computer circuit board and cd romGuest essay by Eric Worrall

One point struck me, reading Anthony’s fascinating account of his meeting with Bill McKibben. Bill, whose primary expertise is writing, appears to have an almost magical view of what computers can do.

Computers are amazing, remarkable, incredibly useful, but they are not magic. As an IT expert with over 25 years commercial experience, someone who has spent a significant part of almost every day of my life, since my mid teens, working on computer software, I’m going to share some of my insights into this most remarkable device – and I’m going to explain why my experience of computers makes me skeptical, of claims about the accuracy and efficacy of climate modelling.

First and foremost, computer models are deeply influenced by the assumptions of the software developer. Creating software is an artistic experience, it feels like embedding a piece of yourself into a machine…

View original 730 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Ice core data shows the much feared +2°C climate ‘tipping point’ has already occurred…

Russ Steele:

“Looked at from the point of view of the most recent 3 millennia which have experienced accelerated cooling, a continued natural climate change towards a colder climate is now more, rather than less, likely.”

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

…and human civilization did just fine.

The Holocene context for Anthropogenic Global warming

Guest essay by Ed Hoskins

Our current beneficial, warm Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years. The congenial climate of the Holocene spans from mankind’s earliest farming to the scientific and technological advances of the last 100 years.

Summary

When considering the scale of temperature changes that alarmists anticipate because of Man-made Global Warming and their view of the disastrous effects of additional Man-made Carbon Dioxide emissions, it is particularly useful to look at climate change from a longer term, century by century or a millennial perspective.

The profile of our current Holocene epoch with temperature averages century by century set against the maximum of the past Eemian epoch and the predictions of Catastrophic Global Warming alarmists this century.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 10.42.21

The much vaunted and much feared “fatal” tipping point of +2°C…

View original 1,074 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Study finds: ‘severe cold snap during the geological age known for its extreme greenhouse climate’

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

cretaceous-cold-snap Illustration originally from Wikipedia article “Geologic temperature record”, annotated by A. Watts

The Arctic: Interglacial period with a break

Reconstruction of Arctic climate conditions in the Cretaceous period

FRANKFURT. Scientists at the Goethe University Frankfurt and at the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre working together with their Canadian counterparts, have reconstructed the climatic development of the Arctic Ocean during the Cretaceous period, 145 to 66 million years ago. The research team comes to the conclusion that there was a severe cold snap during the geological age known for its extreme greenhouse climate. The study published in the professional journal Geology is also intended to help improve prognoses of future climate and environmental development and the assessment of human influence on climate change.

The Cretaceous, which occurred approximately 145 million to 66 million years ago, was one of the warmest periods in the history of the earth. The poles were…

View original 662 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment