A Dalton-like Amplitude for Solar Cycle 25

Russ Steele:

Some insight into potential solar activity during the next solar cycle. A Dalton Minimum will most likely not be as severe as a Maunder. Only time will solve the issue.  The comment discussion is most interesting, highly recommended reading.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

The most accurate method for predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle is to use the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. But with solar minimum likely to be three years away, who can wait that long?

The strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum is a very accurate indicator of the maximum amplitude of the following solar cycle, as per this graph from Dr David Hathaway of NASA:


Up until late 2014, solar polar magnetic field strength was still quite weak as shown in this graph of the history of that parameter by solar cycle from the last four solar minima:


Over the last year the solar polar magnetic fields of Solar Cycle 24 have strengthened to almost the level of Solar Cycle 23 at the same stage. But for the previous two cycles, they also…

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1709; The Disparate Economic And Political Impact of Weather And Climate

Source: 1709; The Disparate Economic And Political Impact of Weather And Climate

I have reblogged this post by Tim Ball from WUWT so readers can read about the climate during the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum. We might see a repeat of these climate conditions during the Next Grand Minimum, although we will have modern heating systems, if we still have some oil and coal to fire the boilers.

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New studies flip climate-change notions upside down

The Nation: Cold Sun rising

The sun will go into “hibernation” mode around 2030, and it has already started to get sleepy. At the Royal Astronomical Society’s annual meeting in July, Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University in the UK confirmed it – the sun will begin its Maunder Minimum (Grand Solar Minimum) in 15 years. Other scientists had suggested years ago that this change was imminent, but Zharkova’s model is said to have near-perfect accuracy.


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GLOBAL COOLING: Decade long ice age predicted as sun ‘hibernates’

SCIENTISTS claim we are in for a decade-long freeze as the sun slows down solar activity by up to 60 per cent.

A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.

However, at the National Astronomy Meeting in Wales, Northumbria University professor Valentina Zharkova said fluctuations an 11-year cycle of solar activity the sun goes through would be responsible for a freeze, the like of which has not been experienced since the 1600s.

From 1645 to 1715 global temperatures dropped due to low solar activity so much that the planet experienced a 70-year ice age known as Maunder Minimum which saw the River Thames in London completely frozen.

More HERE.

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SHOCK CLAIM: World is on brink of 50 year ICE AGE and BRITAIN will bear the brunt

You can find all the details at UK Express HERE.

AccuWeather long-range expert Brett Anderson added: “When there is an anomaly with either the atmosphere or ocean temperature you can bet there will be some effect on the other nearby or far away.”

The warning comes just months after the Met Office warned Britain might be facing another maunder minimum period of cooling.

A recent report warned the amount of light and warmth released by the sun is nosediving to levels “not seen for centuries”.

A so-called ‘Maunder Minimum’ has been responsible for historic winter whiteouts and led to the River Thames freezing 300 years ago.

The Met Office-led study claimed that although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain could see some cooler than average winters in years to come.

A spokesman said: “A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn’t halt global warming.

“Return of ‘grand solar minimum’ could affect European and eastern US winters.”

And, the political bodies of the world are preparing the population for global warming!  This is not going to work out very well.

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, Maunder, Politics, Solar | 1 Comment

Facts do not Matter in Climate Change Politics

A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month. A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science. He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.

Dr Evans is not unaware of the challenge of changing the politic, says his discovery “ought to change the world”. “But the political obstacles are massive,” he said. There are billions on the table and recognition that climate change hysteria has no scientific basis will dry up the climate change slush fund, and Dr Evan’s findings will be fought tooth and nail by the anointed at the trough.


Dr Evans predicts global temperatures, which have plateaued, will begin to cool significantly, beginning between 2017 and 2021. The cooling will be about 0.3C in the 2020s. Some scientists have even forecast a mini ice age in the 2030s.

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The Sun Controls our Climate?.

I got a nice e-mail from Wille Soon this morning announcing his paper, co-written with the Connolly’s Ronan and Michael, has been accepted for publication. He attached a pre publication copy:

Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century

6. Conclusions

We have constructed a new estimate of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends derived from mostly rural stations – thereby minimizing the problems introduced to previous estimates by urbanization bias. Similar to previous estimates, our composite implies warming trends during the periods 1880s-1940s and 1980s-2000s. However, this new estimate implies a more pronounced cooling trend during the 1950s-1970s. As a result, the relative warmth of the mid-20th century warm period is comparable to the recent warm period – a different conclusion to previous estimates.

Although our new composite implies different trends from previous estimates, we note that it is compatible with Northern Hemisphere temperature trends derived from (a) sea surface temperatures; (b) glacier length records; (c) tree ring widths. However, the recent multi model means of the CMIP5 Global Climate Model hindcasts failed to adequately reproduce the temperature trends implied by our composite, even when they included both “anthropogenic and natural forcings”.
One reason why the hindcasts might have failed to accurately reproduce the temperature trends is that the solar forcings they used all implied relatively little solar variability. However, in this paper, we carried out a detailed review of the debate over solar variability, and revealed that considerable uncertainty remains over exactly how the Total Solar Irradiance has varied since the 19th century.

When we compared our new composite to one of the high solar variability reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiance which was not considered by the CMIP5 hindcasts (i.e., the Hoyt & Schatten reconstruction), we found a remarkably close fit. If the Hoyt & Schatten reconstruction and our new Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates are accurate, then it seems that most of the temperature trends since at least 1881 can be explained in terms of solar variability, with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations providing at most a minor contribution. This contradicts the claim by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that most of the temperature trends since the 1950s are due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Bindoff et al., 2013).

Soon, Willie, Connolly, Ronan, Connolly, Michael, Re- evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th century, Earth Science Reviews (2015), doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.010

Copy of the prepublication PDF is SoonConnollyConnolly15-Sep4-ESRunformattedPreprint.

Posted in Analysis, History, Solar | 4 Comments