Future Volcanic Eruptions Will Screw With Climate Change. . .

Peter Hess at Inverse

Climate change doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Many factors contribute to it, not the least of which is volcanic activity. And while you probably think of a volcano in terms of the heat produced, the gas and dust it emits actually affect climate change a lot more than you might think.

In a study published Tuesday in Nature Communications, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research report that major volcanic eruptions could cause more disruption to the global climate than they have in the past. By examining the conditions that followed the eruption of the Indonesian volcano Mount Tambora in 1815, the Boulder, Colorado scientists predict what would happen if this type of major eruption occurred in 2085.

The potential alterations to the climate will not be in the Earth’s favor. While the scientists predict that the cooling that will follow a future eruption of that scale would be even more extreme, it will not offset the effects of a warming climate. Furthermore, they predict that the eruption will disrupt the water cycle, decreasing global precipitation.

The effects of a “volcanic winter” occur as the ash and smoke from an eruption obscure rays from the sun, decreasing their ability to heat the Earth. When Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, thousands of people died instantly, and it is considered the most destructive eruption on Earth in 10,000 years. The dust and gas it emitted into the atmosphere altered global climate for a year afterward, which is why 1816 is known as “The Year Without a Summer.” Global temperatures dipped so severely that crops failed, even in places far away from the volcano. Farms in the northern United States suffered frost damage in August, as did farms in Europe. The massive volcanic eruption triggered a global subsistence crisis, which is estimated to have killed an additional 10,000 people.

Using computer climate models, the researchers of the new study concluded that, if an eruption like Mount Tambora’s happens in 2085, the Earth will cool up to 40 percent more than the 1815 eruption, assuming current rates of climate change continue. However, they also predict that the cooling will be spread out over several years.

The reason the temperature change will so drawn out, they explain, is because ocean temperature is becoming increasingly stratified — that is, separated into layers based on temperature. As this happens, the surface water in the ocean will be increasingly less able to moderate the cooling effects of the eruption, causing a longer and more severe cooling event. Because the cooling in 1815-1816 occurred at a time when ocean temperature was not as stratified, it was absorbed to some degree by the water.

Read the rest of the article HERE.

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On the Cusp of the Next Grand Minimum?

 

One of the signs that we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum is an increase in the number late spring frosts and early on set of winter frost and snow.

The Bonsetreporting world wine production ‘to hit 50-year low due to extreem weather, even though they failed to mention it was due to severe spring frost.

Here are estimates of the drops in wine production by country:

• Italian production will fall 23% to 39.3 million hectolitres.

• French production will drop 19% to 36.7 million hectolitres … its worst harvest since 1945.

• Spanish production will be 15% lower at 33.5 million hectolitres.

• A hectolitre is 100 litres, equivalent to about 133 standard 750mL bottles.

The BBC may blame ‘extreme weather,’ but back in August the French agriculture minister presented a more honest picture, saying that the losses were “mainly attributable to the severe spring frost.”

Bitter cold struck twice within a week in April, ravaging fragile shoots and buds.

Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Hungary also experienced hard frosts this year, and were worried that wine harvests could fall by 30%, even up to 60% in some areas.

H/T to Ice Age Now

Waiting for the early winter cold. Stay tuned.

A massive hole just opened up in Antarctica’s ice and scientists can’t explain it

antarctic hole

Thanks to its usefulness as an indicator of how badly humans are messing up the Earth with global warming, scientists like to keep a pretty close eye on the ice in Antarctica. Now, a massive hole the size of Lake Superior has appeared many miles inland from where the ice meets the ocean, and scientists have little concrete explanation as to why it’s there.

The hole, which is called a polynya, is incredibly puzzling because of its odd behavior. This isn’t the first time it’s been spotted, having appeared last year for a brief period as well, and long before that it was detected back in the 1970s. However, it disappeared for several decades before showing back up, throwing a huge kink in many scientific explanations for its existence.

Source

Could the story above be related to this story below on undersea volcanos?

More than one million underwater volcanoes – Oregon State University

According to Oregon State University (OSU), there may be more than one million underwater volcanoes. Here’s how their website puts it:

“If an estimate of 4,000 volcanoes per million square kilometers on the floor of the Pacific Ocean is extrapolated for all the oceans than there are more than a million submarine (underwater) volcanoes. Perhaps as many as 75,000 of these volcanoes rise over half a mile (1 kilometer) above the ocean floor.”

Your thoughts? Are they related?

New York Times article “so full of nonsense that it is difficult to read”

From Ice Age Now:

Yesterday The New York Times ran an article refuting any ideas that the planet is cooling due to solar activity (or lack thereof). Joseph Kraig provides a wonderful rebuttal.

By Joseph Kraig

This article is so full of nonsense that it is difficult to read.

There is no universal ice melt. Though the article says ice is melting world wide and the oceans are rising, it is simply not true. The oceans are not rising and in places where it was supposed to rise it has actually gotten lower. Greenland saw a faster and larger increase in ice this year than ever recorded. The Glaciers in Alaska and California are both getting larger.

While the sun appears the same day after day it is not. There have been major increases in ultraviolet emissions during the 80’s and 90’s, those emissions are now falling, dramatically.

As long ago as the Maunder Minimum it was known that fewer sun spots cause cooler weather. We are now in a time that is bringing us to a Maunder type of minimum or Grand Minimum.

While it is true that temperatures have been rising (and falling) since the end of the last glaciation we are at the end or what should be the end of the inter-glacial period. We should appreciate any warming we can get.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is growing. Certainly humans contribute to that growth but the percentage of increase due to human industry is minuscule. In fact the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is minuscule. It has never been proven that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. There are much more effective greenhouse gases in our atmosphere such as water vapor and Methane.

There are other sciences discoveries that are changing the way scientist think about Global Warming. Who would have thought a couple decades ago that the stars sending their cosmic rays to us could affect our weather but they do, especially in solar minimums.

Ignorance rules our newspapers and much of society. The truth is out there for all to see but those who don’t like the truth lie and know because of our unwillingness to spend a little time reading that we won’t know any better. I refuse to believe the lies of the Mainstream press apparatus.

 

High Energy Cosmic Rays Not From Our Galaxy

 

raymap

This sky map shows the flux of high-energy (E ≥ 8 EeV) cosmic rays used for this study. The cross marks the source of the cosmic rays, while the circles denote the 68% and 95% confidence level regions.
The Pierre Auger Collaboration.

 

Last week, an international team of over 400 researchers from 18 nations finally confirmed that high-energy cosmic rays are not coming from inside the Milky Way Galaxy, but instead from somewhere beyond.

In the study, published September 22 in the journal Science, the researchers gathered over ten years of data taken with the Pierre Auger Observatory to determine whether high-energy cosmic rays were hitting Earth equally from all directions. They are not.

Instead, the researchers found an overabundance of cosmic rays arriving from one specific region in the sky, located about 120 degrees away from our galactic center, in a direction that falls outside the Milky Way’s disk and cannot be associated with any possible sources within the galaxy. The researchers concluded that high-energy cosmic rays must have extragalactic origins.

Source: http://www.astronomy.com/news/2017/09/cosmic-rays-extragalactic-origin

Since high-energy cosmic rays have been associated with cloud formation, I was wondering if the cosmic ray numbers fluxed, or were they a stable stream? If the number was stable, the impact would be the same on cloud formation. However, if they varied over time, the cosmic rays could impact our climate from afar? Does anyone have more information, access to the paper?

Little Ice Age Explained

By Terry Mejdrich

Sunspots are huge magnetic storms on the sun that can be thousands of miles in diameter. They appear as dark spots because their temperature is slightly cooler than the surrounding surface. They are present when the sun goes through the “active” phase of its approximately 11-year cycle. Currently, the sun is generating tremendous solar storms, an indication of increased intensity of its magnetic field.

Typically, the sun goes from no storms at all to a ferocious period of activity every 11 years. Scientists do not have a clear explanation for why this variability occurs, but likely it is a result of fluctuating convection currents within the sun. Outbursts of superheated plasma from solar storms can cause problems on Earth if the Earth happens to be in the line of fire, interfering with the electronics of satellites and communications. But the sun’s strong magnetic field, of which sunspots are a byproduct, is a vital necessity for protecting life on Earth from cosmic radiation.

In effect, the sun’s magnetic field creates a shield that greatly reduces the amount of harmful radiation reaching the Earth from outer space. But it also, in an indirect way, helps maintain a stable climate, at least according to a recent hypothesis.

The period from about 1650 to 1710 is known at the “Little Ice Age.” Not every year during that period was colder than average, but overall the temperature dropped an average of about two degrees Fahrenheit in the Northern Hemisphere. Two degrees doesn’t sound like much, but it led to crop failures, food shortages and social unrest, particularly in Europe. The Thames River, which flows through London, England, froze over during winter months. Scientists have speculated on reasons why this period of cooling occurred. Some suggested reasons include increased volcanic activity, shifting ocean currents, as well as a dip in the amount of light and heat the sun produced.

Modern measurements, however, have shown that the sun’s light and heat output remain nearly constant with little difference, even during times of increased solar storms. And yet observations by science-minded people of the time indicate that during the Little Ice Age, sunspot activity was almost completely absent. Researchers have wondered if it was mere coincidence that the reduced sunspot activity coincided with a noticeable drop in average temperatures, but if there was a connection, it had eluded them.

Now, a few scientists believe they have found that connection. Their reasoning goes like this: During a protracted solar minimum, which occurred during the Little Ice Age, the sun’s magnetic field becomes weaker (as evidenced by reduced sunspot activity). This allows more cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere. The cosmic rays interact with molecules and atoms in the atmosphere creating microscopic grains of “dust.” These particles attract water vapor, creating tiny droplets of water, which enhances the development of clouds. (Every raindrop forms around a microscopic particle. Without such airborne particulates, there would be no rain.) Increased cloud cover blocks a corresponding amount of solar radiation, thereby decreasing the temperature. This is the scenario now being proposed as the reason for the Little Ice Age.

Further research is required to verify this hypothesis. But it does explain the “coincidence” of a period of virtually no sunspot activity and a period of cooling in the Northern Hemisphere.

The other point of note is the degree to which Earth’s climate changed with just a two-degree reduction in temperature. Presently, average temperatures are rising worldwide, and the consequences are already evident.

http://www.grandrapidsmn.com/opinion/columnists/little-ice-age-explained/article_614dfec8-9a29-11e7-989d-cffaf92de2c7.html

Your opinion is most welcome. Does this theory hold up?

Explosive Volcanism Triggered the Little Ice Age

Headline at Ice Age Now blog:

Volcanism alone can explain the Little Ice Age (LIA), researchers insist. Low sunspot activity is not the culprit.

Precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland show that “Little Ice Age summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430–1455 AD,” researchers found.These intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half-centuries of the past millennium, the study shows. “Explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times.”“Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg.

”Once the ice age was triggered, cold summers were maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols were removed. the authors assert. “Large changes in solar irradiance are not required.

Full Post is HERE.
The original research document is HERE.

“Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks,” published on 31 January 2012

From a comment on the Ice Age Now Post:

From what I see on this page it sounds like the researchers are not aware of what causes the increased volcanic activity and earthquakes in the first place. Namely a very weak solar cycle is directly linked to a substantial increase in volcanic activity. The “experts” are still having a hard time connecting the dots.

I have published the graphic below several times showing an increase in volcanic activity during grand minimums. The question is still open, how does a quiet sun cause an increase in volcanic activity on the earth?

GTEMPS

Your thoughts are most welcome?  What is the solar connection to earthquakes on the planet? It looks like the sudden cool down starts before the plethora of volcanic eruptions on the chart. Does the cooling cause eruptions?