Que Ball Sun Looking More Like the Dalton Minimum

Anthony Watts has an update on the progress of Solar Cycle 24 HERE:

sdo-02-11-2016-4500

According to the data Cycle 24 the lowest in 200 years which harkens back to the time of the Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 5

solar-cycle24-comparisonAnthony writes:

As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5, which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus falling within the Dalton Minimum). The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref: Wikipedia)

The Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. During that period, there was only a  temperature variation of about 1 °C. However, was the lower number of sunspots the cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period, or was it related to some other phenomenon not well understood. Scientists have  suggested that a rise in volcanism was responsible for the cooling trend.

The Year Without a Summer in 1816 occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The prime reason for cooler temperatures that summer was the explosive eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia according to many scientists. Mount Tambora  was one of two largest eruptions in the past 2000 years.

The question in my mind is how to verify that volcanism increases during solar minimums? If you look at the chart below, it appears that major volcanos erupted during the cold periods. But, were those eruptions triggered by declining sun spots or some other phenomenon.

According  to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program database of eruptions, a count of all the eruptions that started in each year, from 1945 to 2015. it shows about 35 new eruptions per year, with a lot of variation from about 25 to 50 per year. The trend over the full period is basically flat, and while there was a slight increase on average from about 1997 to 2008. There were 26 eruptions in 2015 and 37 in 2014. There is no noticeable increase during the solar cycle 24 decline. Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism database has a lot to explore, more in a future post.

Your thoughts?

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, History, Solar, Volcanism | Leave a comment

Cosmic rays in Earth’s atmosphere are intensifying

According to a report at Space Weather.

Newly-released measurements by high-altitude balloons show that cosmic rays in Earth’s atmosphere are intensifying.

cosmicrays_mar15_jan16_strip

The ongoing increase, which has been tracked since early 2015, will likely accelerate in the months and years ahead as the solar cycle swings away from Solar Max.

This result is of interest to everyone from mountain climbers and air travelers to operators of high-altitude drones.

And I might add Climatologist may also be interested.  In his book The Chilling Stars, Henrik Svensmark at the Danish National Space Center, proposed a brilliant and daring new theory that cosmic rays increase cloud cover,  thus reducing global temperatures as cosmic rays intensity.  Or, the lack cosmic rays promotes less cloud cover resulting in increased global temperatures. There is not total agreement with Svensmark’s theory among many climatologists, however, we may now have an opportunity to observe declining global temperatures as the cosmic ray intensity increases. Or, the lack of a decline in temperatures. However, we are currently seeing a slight decline.

This decline could accelerate over time as the cosmic rays continue to increase. Or not. Stay Tuned.

Posted in Analysis, Cosmic Rays, Solar | 12 Comments

Heat From Deep Ocean Fault Punches Hole in Arctic Ice Sheet

This a report from the Climate Change Dispatch that I found very interesting. Some reader many know the details as it is from a November 2015 post.

Powerful deep Arctic Ocean geological heat flow forces have just sent us a very obvious signal, but are climate scientists listening? The answer is no, however geologists hear it loud and clear!

Ice_melt_hole

Figure 1

As winter begins to settle in across the Arctic Ocean and sea ice extent rapidly expands, a very interesting high temperature and low salinity hole has just been punched in the sea ice at a very telling location: directly above the deep ocean Gakkel Ridge Rift / Fault System (Figures 1, 2, and 3 in the original post).

This world class plate tectonic pull-apart rift is a 1,000-mile-long fault system on the seafloor that has in recent past pulsed massive amounts of heat into the overlying ocean and thereby melting large portions of the ice that floats above the heated ocean column.

So what if anything is to be learned from the recent October 12 geologically induced deep-ocean floor heat pulse that punched a small hole in the Arctic sea ice? Many things, most of which have surprisingly large implications concerning the entire climate change discussion.

Here is how it works:

Climate scientists who favor the theory of man-made global warming have maintained for many years that the accelerated melting rate of the Arctic sea ice during the 1999-2007 time period was entirely due to man-made CO2 emissions which acted to rapidly warm the atmosphere. This unusual Arctic melting was greater than the melting rate associated with Earth’s ongoing and very normal 11,500-year-long post-glacial period melt rate.

Many climate scientists have begrudgingly stuck to this human-induced atmospheric warming story even though diverse and compelling amounts of data have now cast serious doubt on this hypothesis. It is clear to most scientists that non-atmospheric natural forces play the dominate role in driving sea ice extent and thickness such as well known variations in Earth’s astronomical orbit patterns, long-term cyclic changes in deep-ocean current patterns, and most importantly variations in geologically induced heat and chemically charged fluid flow from deep ocean faults and volcanoes (see previous CCD posts).

The small geologically induced deep-ocean heat and fluid flow event of October 12 eloquently demonstrate that geological forces are still active and have the power to alter Arctic climate and climate-related events, melt sea ice.

Keep in mind this latest October 12 event is not associated with obvious earthquake swarms and proven volcanic eruptions as was the case during the 1999 – 2007 event. This earlier event was powerful but not obvious to those who did not understand its true nature. Even though it was associated with an extensive low-intensity earthquake swarm, a huge methane release, and a significant series of volcanic eruptions along the Gakkel Ridge it was, and still is dismissed as insignificant by most climate scientists advocating the theory of man-made global warming.

However, many other scientists now realize that the 1999-2007 Gakkel Ridge heat and chemically charged fluid flow event was the root cause of accelerated the Arctic sea ice melting rate. An event that fits well with the Plate Climatology Theory, geological forces strongly influence climate.

The question is what role did Plate Climatology play in Grand Minimums, what could it play in the Next Grand Minimum?

Posted in Analysis, History, Volcanism | 2 Comments

Volcanos and Climate Change

Cross posted from Sierra Foothills Commentary.

Sierra Foothill Commentary

It is not clear why, but when the earth cools and sunspots are at their minimum, volcanic activity on earth seems to increase, especially super volcanos that leave a significant eruption signature. See graphic below:

Volcanic activity
The most dangerous super volcano in the US is a volcanic plume that has been sliding northeast, across Idaho for millions of years and last erupting about 640,000 years ago in north-western Wyoming. The Yellowstone Caldera was created by a massive volcanic eruption approximately 640,000 years ago. Subsequent lava flows filled in much of the caldera.

UK Express has a volcano warning:

Instances of volcanic eruptions are their highest for 300 years and scientists fear a major one that could kill millions and devastate the planet is a real possibility.

Experts at the European Science Foundation said volcanoes – especially super-volcanoes like the one at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, which has a caldera measuring 34…

View original post 92 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

A Quiet Sun is Coming and so is a Cold Climate According to Study

Extracts from a press release from Lomonosov Moscow State University

The Sun’s behaviour in future cycles is the main theme of a publication on the forecast and explanation of the minima of solar activity. The paper was prepared with contributions from Elena Popova from the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics (Lomonosov Moscow State University) and was published in Scientific Reports.

Scientists have studied the evolution of the solar magnetic field and the number of sunspots on the Sun’s surface. The amplitude and the spatial configuration of the magnetic field of our star are changing over the years. Every 11 years the number of sunspots decreases sharply. Every 90 years this reduction (when it coincides with the 11-year cycle) reduces the number of spots by about a half. A 300-400 year lows reduce their numbers almost to zero. Best known minimum is the Maunder minimum, which lasted roughly from 1645 to 1715. During this period, there were about 50 sunspots instead of the usual 40 000-50 000.

Analysis of solar radiation showed that its highs and lows almost coincide with the maxima and minima in the number of spots. By studying changes in the number of sunspots, analyzing the content of isotopes like carbon-14, beryllium-10, and others, in glaciers and trees, the researchers concluded that the solar magnetic activity has a cyclic structure.

A group of scientists – Valentina Tarasova (Northumbria University, England, Space Research Institute, Ukraine), Elena Popova (SINP, MSU), Simon John Shepherd (University of Bradford, England) and Sergei Zharkov (University of Hull, England) – analyzed three solar activity cycles from 1976 to 2009, using the so-called “principal component analysis”, which allows reveal waves of solar magnetic field with the biggest contribution in the observational data. As a result of a new method of analysis, it was found that the magnetic waves in the Sun are generated in pairs, and the main pair is responsible for changes in the dipole field, which is observed when solar activity is changing. Also scientists have managed to obtain analytical formulas describing the evolution of both waves.

Using empirically found two waves of the magnetic field, Elena Popova hypothesized that the minima of solar magnetic activity can be caused by the process of the beating of these two waves. Each wave is generated at different depths in the Sun and the waves have similar frequencies. As a result of ascent of the magnetic field on the surface the waves begin to interact which ends in beating of amplitude of the resulting magnetic field. This leads to a significant decline in the amplitude of the magnetic field for several decades. Comparison of the results of the model was carried out both with an array of observed magnetic field data for cycles 21-23, and with the observed data of solar activity over 1000 years. On this scale the model calculations of Popova were very close to the characteristics of solar magnetic activity.

By highlighting the indicative period of the beats (which is about a few centuries), scientists have reconstructed solar activity since ancient times (starting from the year 1200) and predicted it until the year 3200. The given chart shows that solar activity decreases dramatically about every 350 years. And upcoming decrease in solar activity begins nowadays.

Will all this affect the weather on Earth?

“Studies have shown that over the last 400 000 years there were 5 global warming and 4 ice ages. What caused them? How much can solar activity affect the weather and climate change? This question is still not solved and is extremely relevant and interesting challenge for the various researchers around the world. There are a number of theories that suggest very different degrees of influence of solar activity on weather and climate. In addition to solar activity, climatologists offer other factors that may affect the dynamics of Earth’s climate system. Such a system is a very complex nonlinear system, and further use of numerical simulation and analysis of paleodata can help in the investigation”, says Elena Popova. “If in the near future there would be a minimum of solar activity, it would give an opportunity to see what happens with the climate dynamics and test existing theories about the influence of solar activity. Actually, even if we start from the simple knowledge of the cyclicality of the Sun, it can be said that it’s already time for hundred-year-minima – the previous one has happened in the beginning of XX century. Of course, it is necessary to take into account the effect of other factors and processes in the atmosphere; however, the challenges have always intrigued scientists”.

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, Maunder, Solar | 2 Comments

Climate and Human Civilization over the last 18,000 years

I recommend readers examine this post at WUWT as it puts multiple grand minimums in perspective, in that they follow long warm periods which promoted human growth and expansion. It is interesting to note that the cold periods were accompanied by long-term droughts. Droughts that disrupted civilizations and in many cases promote collapse. Highly recommend reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Andy May

This is an updated timeline of climatic events and human history for the last 18,000 years. The original timeline was posted in 2013. The updated full size (Ansi E size or 34×44 inches) Adobe Reader version 8 PDF can be downloaded here or by clicking on Figure 1. It prints pretty well on 11×17 inch paper and very well on 17×22 inch paper or larger. To see the timeline in full resolution or to print it, you must download it. It is not copyrighted, but please acknowledge the author if you use it.

climate-human-civilization

Figure 1 -click for a much larger, printable poster (PDF)

References to the images and data are given in this essay as hyperlinks. I’ve done my best to verify the accuracy of the content by checking multiple sources. When references had different dates for the same event, I chose the most commonly…

View original post 5,101 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

A Dalton-like Amplitude for Solar Cycle 25

Some insight into potential solar activity during the next solar cycle. A Dalton Minimum will most likely not be as severe as a Maunder. Only time will solve the issue.  The comment discussion is most interesting, highly recommended reading.

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by David Archibald

The most accurate method for predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle is to use the strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum. But with solar minimum likely to be three years away, who can wait that long?

The strength of the solar polar magnetic fields at solar minimum is a very accurate indicator of the maximum amplitude of the following solar cycle, as per this graph from Dr David Hathaway of NASA:

clip_image004

Up until late 2014, solar polar magnetic field strength was still quite weak as shown in this graph of the history of that parameter by solar cycle from the last four solar minima:

clip_image006

Over the last year the solar polar magnetic fields of Solar Cycle 24 have strengthened to almost the level of Solar Cycle 23 at the same stage. But for the previous two cycles, they also…

View original post 368 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment