UK MET Office: Fastest decline in solar activity since the last ice age

Russ Steele:

More evidence we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

h/t Benny Peiser – the UK MET office has published a study which suggests solar activity is currently plummeting, the fastest rate of decline in 9300 years. The study also raises the odds of Maunder Minimum style conditions by 2050 from 8% to 15 – 20%.

Variations in solar forcing for Total Solar Irradiance (W m−2) and ultraviolet irradiance in the 200–320 nm spectral band (W m−2) relative to the mean of the repeated cycle in CTRL-8.5 for (a) CTRL-8.5 (black), (b) EXPT-A (blue) and (c) EXPT-B (red). The value of this mean is 1,366.2 W m−2 for TSI and 27.4 W m−2 for the ultraviolet band. Figure 1: Variations in solar forcing for Total Solar Irradiance (W m−2) and ultraviolet irradiance in the 200–320 nm spectral band (W m−2) relative to the mean of the repeated cycle in CTRL-8.5 for (a) CTRL-8.5 (black), (b) EXPT-A (blue) and (c) EXPT-B (red). The value of this mean is 1,366.2 W m−2 for TSI and 27.4 W m−2 for the ultraviolet band.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

The abstract of the study;

The past few decades have been characterized by a period of relatively high solar activity. However, the recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the…

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Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

The Guardian has the details:

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.

However, the study said any potential weakening in solar activity would have only a small effect on temperature rises at a worldwide level, delaying the warming caused by emissions from cars, factories and power plants by around two years.

The sun has been in a period of high activity for the past few decades. But scientists believe there is now as much as a 20% chance of a weaker period of activity, known as a grand solar minimum, occurring in the next 40 years.

“Even if you do go into Maunder minimum conditions it’s not going to combat global warming, the sun’s not going to save us,” said lead author Sarah Ineson at the Met Office. The Maunder minimum is the name for the sun’s weak period during 1645-1715, when the Thames froze solidly enough for eyewitnesses to report horse-driven carriages crossing it.

Climate change means such sights in the second half of the century would not occur, since the sun’s cooling effect would only reduce manmade temperature rises in northern Europe and the eastern US by 0.4-0.8C. Such offsetting was not a “large signal”, Ineson said, although the study found there would be more frosty days in those regions than there would be without the weaker solar activity.

More details HERE.

We are the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum, and the real issue is the impact on agriculture, and the ability to feed the worlds 6 + billions. The population was less than a billion during the Maunder Minimum, and millions starved to death.  What do you think will happen when the next Grand Minimum arrives?

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, Maunder, Solar | 6 Comments

An IT expert’s view on climate modelling

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Computer circuit board and cd romGuest essay by Eric Worrall

One point struck me, reading Anthony’s fascinating account of his meeting with Bill McKibben. Bill, whose primary expertise is writing, appears to have an almost magical view of what computers can do.

Computers are amazing, remarkable, incredibly useful, but they are not magic. As an IT expert with over 25 years commercial experience, someone who has spent a significant part of almost every day of my life, since my mid teens, working on computer software, I’m going to share some of my insights into this most remarkable device – and I’m going to explain why my experience of computers makes me skeptical, of claims about the accuracy and efficacy of climate modelling.

First and foremost, computer models are deeply influenced by the assumptions of the software developer. Creating software is an artistic experience, it feels like embedding a piece of yourself into a machine…

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Ice core data shows the much feared +2°C climate ‘tipping point’ has already occurred…

Russ Steele:

“Looked at from the point of view of the most recent 3 millennia which have experienced accelerated cooling, a continued natural climate change towards a colder climate is now more, rather than less, likely.”

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

…and human civilization did just fine.

The Holocene context for Anthropogenic Global warming

Guest essay by Ed Hoskins

Our current beneficial, warm Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years. The congenial climate of the Holocene spans from mankind’s earliest farming to the scientific and technological advances of the last 100 years.


When considering the scale of temperature changes that alarmists anticipate because of Man-made Global Warming and their view of the disastrous effects of additional Man-made Carbon Dioxide emissions, it is particularly useful to look at climate change from a longer term, century by century or a millennial perspective.

The profile of our current Holocene epoch with temperature averages century by century set against the maximum of the past Eemian epoch and the predictions of Catastrophic Global Warming alarmists this century.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 10.42.21

The much vaunted and much feared “fatal” tipping point of +2°C…

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Study finds: ‘severe cold snap during the geological age known for its extreme greenhouse climate’

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

cretaceous-cold-snap Illustration originally from Wikipedia article “Geologic temperature record”, annotated by A. Watts

The Arctic: Interglacial period with a break

Reconstruction of Arctic climate conditions in the Cretaceous period

FRANKFURT. Scientists at the Goethe University Frankfurt and at the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre working together with their Canadian counterparts, have reconstructed the climatic development of the Arctic Ocean during the Cretaceous period, 145 to 66 million years ago. The research team comes to the conclusion that there was a severe cold snap during the geological age known for its extreme greenhouse climate. The study published in the professional journal Geology is also intended to help improve prognoses of future climate and environmental development and the assessment of human influence on climate change.

The Cretaceous, which occurred approximately 145 million to 66 million years ago, was one of the warmest periods in the history of the earth. The poles were…

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The Iceman Cometh?

Russ Steele:

Mike Lockwood :”He raised the likelihood of another grand minimum to 25% (from 10% three years previously). “

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Could a quiescent sun portend a new little ice age: a chilly era for humanity and agriculture?

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

President Obama, Al Gore and other alarmists continue to prophesy manmade global warming crises, brought on by our “unsustainable” reliance on fossil fuels. Modelers like Mike Mann and Gavin Schmidt conjure up illusory crisis “scenarios” based on the assumption that carbon dioxide emissions now drive climate change. A trillion-dollar Climate Crisis industry self-servingly echoes their claims.

But what if these merchants of fear are wrong? What if the sun refuses to cooperate with the alarmists?

“The sun is almost completely blank,” meteorologist Paul Dorian notes. Virtually no sunspots darken the blinding yellow orb. “The main driver of all weather and climate … has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. Not since February 1906 has there…

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Solar Cycle Update

Russ Steele:

I am reposting David Archibald’s post, but I recommend that readers look at the comments. As expected Leif Lsvalgaard does not agree, but he provides some useful information. I found most of thoughtful comments to be interesting.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

Two useful things we would like to know are the length of Solar Cycle 24 and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Figure 1 below shows the NOAA version of Solar Cycle 24 progression with the 23/24 transition copied onto the end of their projection. This crude method (we don’t have another) suggests that the 24/25 transition will be at the end of 2021 which would make Solar Cycle 24 twelve years long. Solar physicists have generally given up forecasting Solar Cycle 25 amplitude. The only extant forecast is Livingstone and Penn’s forecast of an amplitude of seven. In the bigger picture, almost a decade after Schatten and Tobiska forecast a return to a Maunder Minimum-like level of activity, another solar physicist, Mark Giampapa of the National Solar Observatory in Tuscon, Arizona, is of the opinion that “we are heading into a Maunder Minimum” that…

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