Sunspots Point To Looming Mini-Ice Age

From the Times of India:

A recent paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research reports over the past 20 years there has been a steady decline in activity on the sun’s surface and interplanetary magnetic fields, indicated by a dramatic decline in the number of sunspots. Scientists and astronomers from Physical Research Laboratory in India and counterparts in China and Japan write the decline in solar activity could indicate Earth is heading for another “little ice age” or even a more extended period of low solar activity, a Maunder Minimum, by 2020. During the last Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715 AD, the sun was almost completely spotless and Europe and much of Earth witnessed extremely harsh winter.

H/T to Climate Change Weekly

According to the West without Water,  the paleoclimate records show increased climate variability during the Little Ice Age in the Southwest US. It was generally cooler and wetter, punctuated by  episodes of drought, sometimes severe drought lasting for several years.   If low sunspots produced a cool wet climate in the Southwest, including California the past, I think we should consider the possibility it will happen again.  This is in conflict with the promotion of global warming being promoted by the Governor and the environmental wackos at CARB.

 

Posted in History, Maunder, Solar | Leave a comment

Current Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In Almost 200 Years …Planet At The Mercy Of The Sun

P Gosselin translates the latest post at Die kalte Sonne on solar activity. The URL link is HERE

===================================================
The Sun in March 2016
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

Our mother star was once again less active than normal in March. The observed solar sunspot number (SSN) was 54.9, which was about 2/3 of the mean value (82.5) for this month into the cycle. Here’s what the current solar cycle (SC) looks like so far:

bb1

Figure 1: The course of the current SC 24 since it began in December 2008, up to March 2016 (month 88) in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is shown in blue, and the similarLY (since month 73) behaving solar cycle number 5, which occurred from May 1789 to December 1810, shown in black.

Note the similarity of the current Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 5 which is associated with the Dalton Minimum. It maybe a little too early to compare similarities with Solar Cycles 5 and 6, leading the planet into another mini ice age, like that during the Dalton Minimum.  Or whether this minimum will combine with a lower Solar Cycle 25 which could  lead to a 30-year cooling period producing another Little Ice Age, like that during the Maunder Minimum.  We will just have to wait and watch the climate evolve as the sunspots decline.

Posted in Dalton, History, Maunder | 1 Comment

Solar Update March 2016

Sun with spot

Watts Up With That Guest Blogger David Archibald has an update on solar activity.  David  provides the reader a plethora of graphic evidence that the sun is changing, with fewer sunspots over time, and with a disparity between the northern and southern hemisphere.  More details HERE.

Posted in Analysis, Solar | 1 Comment

Study: fewer Caribbean hurricanes during Maunder Minimum of solar activity

I posted this before I read this comment:

Willis Eschenbach 

Riiiight … it is a spliced record, and the anomalous period is right before the splice. Not only that but the puff piece above is pre-publication, so they get to put their claims out there with no chance of anyone even reading their study, much less falsifying it, until after their version has gone round the world. No data, no code, no methods section, no nothing.

Sorry, but to me that’s scientific malfeasance. I’ll remember the names of the authors so I can avoid them in future.

w.

When reading the study keep Willis’s critique in mind

 

Watts Up With That?

“We didn’t go looking for the Maunder Minimum, it just popped out of the data.”

Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005 Hurricane Katrina, Aug 28, 2005

From the UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

Shipwrecks, tree rings reveal Caribbean hurricanes in buccaneer era

Records of Spanish shipwrecks combined with tree-ring records show the period 1645 to 1715 had the fewest Caribbean hurricanes since 1500, according to new University of Arizona-led research. The study is the first to use shipwrecks as a proxy for hurricane activity.

The researchers found a 75 percent reduction in the number of Caribbean hurricanes from 1645-1715, a time with little sunspot activity and cool temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.

“We’re the first to use shipwrecks to study hurricanes in the past,” said lead author Valerie Trouet, an associate professor in the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. “By combining shipwreck data and tree-ring data, we are extending the Caribbean hurricane record back in time and that…

View original post 716 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Que Ball Sun Looking More Like the Dalton Minimum

Anthony Watts has an update on the progress of Solar Cycle 24 HERE:

sdo-02-11-2016-4500

According to the data Cycle 24 the lowest in 200 years which harkens back to the time of the Dalton Minimum and Solar Cycle 5

solar-cycle24-comparisonAnthony writes:

As you can see from the plots in Figure 1, the current level of activity of solar cycle 24 seems close to that of solar cycle number 5, which occurred beginning in May 1798 and ending in December 1810 (thus falling within the Dalton Minimum). The maximum smoothed sunspot number (monthly number of sunspots averaged over a twelve-month period) observed during the solar cycle was 49.2, in February 1805 (the second lowest of any cycle to date, as a result of being part of the Dalton Minimum), and the minimum was zero.(ref: Wikipedia)

The Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. During that period, there was only a  temperature variation of about 1 °C. However, was the lower number of sunspots the cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period, or was it related to some other phenomenon not well understood. Scientists have  suggested that a rise in volcanism was responsible for the cooling trend.

The Year Without a Summer in 1816 occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The prime reason for cooler temperatures that summer was the explosive eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia according to many scientists. Mount Tambora  was one of two largest eruptions in the past 2000 years.

The question in my mind is how to verify that volcanism increases during solar minimums? If you look at the chart below, it appears that major volcanos erupted during the cold periods. But, were those eruptions triggered by declining sun spots or some other phenomenon.

According  to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program database of eruptions, a count of all the eruptions that started in each year, from 1945 to 2015. it shows about 35 new eruptions per year, with a lot of variation from about 25 to 50 per year. The trend over the full period is basically flat, and while there was a slight increase on average from about 1997 to 2008. There were 26 eruptions in 2015 and 37 in 2014. There is no noticeable increase during the solar cycle 24 decline. Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism database has a lot to explore, more in a future post.

Your thoughts?

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, History, Solar, Volcanism | 9 Comments

Cosmic rays in Earth’s atmosphere are intensifying

According to a report at Space Weather.

Newly-released measurements by high-altitude balloons show that cosmic rays in Earth’s atmosphere are intensifying.

cosmicrays_mar15_jan16_strip

The ongoing increase, which has been tracked since early 2015, will likely accelerate in the months and years ahead as the solar cycle swings away from Solar Max.

This result is of interest to everyone from mountain climbers and air travelers to operators of high-altitude drones.

And I might add Climatologist may also be interested.  In his book The Chilling Stars, Henrik Svensmark at the Danish National Space Center, proposed a brilliant and daring new theory that cosmic rays increase cloud cover,  thus reducing global temperatures as cosmic rays intensity.  Or, the lack cosmic rays promotes less cloud cover resulting in increased global temperatures. There is not total agreement with Svensmark’s theory among many climatologists, however, we may now have an opportunity to observe declining global temperatures as the cosmic ray intensity increases. Or, the lack of a decline in temperatures. However, we are currently seeing a slight decline.

This decline could accelerate over time as the cosmic rays continue to increase. Or not. Stay Tuned.

Posted in Analysis, Cosmic Rays, Solar | 14 Comments

Heat From Deep Ocean Fault Punches Hole in Arctic Ice Sheet

This a report from the Climate Change Dispatch that I found very interesting. Some reader many know the details as it is from a November 2015 post.

Powerful deep Arctic Ocean geological heat flow forces have just sent us a very obvious signal, but are climate scientists listening? The answer is no, however geologists hear it loud and clear!

Ice_melt_hole

Figure 1

As winter begins to settle in across the Arctic Ocean and sea ice extent rapidly expands, a very interesting high temperature and low salinity hole has just been punched in the sea ice at a very telling location: directly above the deep ocean Gakkel Ridge Rift / Fault System (Figures 1, 2, and 3 in the original post).

This world class plate tectonic pull-apart rift is a 1,000-mile-long fault system on the seafloor that has in recent past pulsed massive amounts of heat into the overlying ocean and thereby melting large portions of the ice that floats above the heated ocean column.

So what if anything is to be learned from the recent October 12 geologically induced deep-ocean floor heat pulse that punched a small hole in the Arctic sea ice? Many things, most of which have surprisingly large implications concerning the entire climate change discussion.

Here is how it works:

Climate scientists who favor the theory of man-made global warming have maintained for many years that the accelerated melting rate of the Arctic sea ice during the 1999-2007 time period was entirely due to man-made CO2 emissions which acted to rapidly warm the atmosphere. This unusual Arctic melting was greater than the melting rate associated with Earth’s ongoing and very normal 11,500-year-long post-glacial period melt rate.

Many climate scientists have begrudgingly stuck to this human-induced atmospheric warming story even though diverse and compelling amounts of data have now cast serious doubt on this hypothesis. It is clear to most scientists that non-atmospheric natural forces play the dominate role in driving sea ice extent and thickness such as well known variations in Earth’s astronomical orbit patterns, long-term cyclic changes in deep-ocean current patterns, and most importantly variations in geologically induced heat and chemically charged fluid flow from deep ocean faults and volcanoes (see previous CCD posts).

The small geologically induced deep-ocean heat and fluid flow event of October 12 eloquently demonstrate that geological forces are still active and have the power to alter Arctic climate and climate-related events, melt sea ice.

Keep in mind this latest October 12 event is not associated with obvious earthquake swarms and proven volcanic eruptions as was the case during the 1999 – 2007 event. This earlier event was powerful but not obvious to those who did not understand its true nature. Even though it was associated with an extensive low-intensity earthquake swarm, a huge methane release, and a significant series of volcanic eruptions along the Gakkel Ridge it was, and still is dismissed as insignificant by most climate scientists advocating the theory of man-made global warming.

However, many other scientists now realize that the 1999-2007 Gakkel Ridge heat and chemically charged fluid flow event was the root cause of accelerated the Arctic sea ice melting rate. An event that fits well with the Plate Climatology Theory, geological forces strongly influence climate.

The question is what role did Plate Climatology play in Grand Minimums, what could it play in the Next Grand Minimum?

Posted in Analysis, History, Volcanism | 2 Comments