Grand Minimum Super Earthquakes

Upheaval!: Why Catastrophic Earthquakes Will Soon Strike the United States

by Mr. John L. Casey, Dr. Dong Choi, Dr.Fumio Tsunoda and Dr. Ole HumlumPublished January 2017.

It is hard to write a book about the future, as it can be hard to address all the influencing factors. In this case, John Casey and his fellow authors are basing the future on the past. They examine the history of earth quakes during solar minimums. Previous solar minimums have been a challenge for humans, with a colder climate, shorter growing seasons, super storms, and an increase in the number of the main earth quakes which produce more solar minimum unanticipated misery according to the authors.

The authors provide a compelling amount of data relating the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future. The charts are clear and readable, even on the Kindle once selected for review. There is enough color to increase understanding of the information, without confusing the reader.

I found the book interesting and had a hard time putting it down in the evening and turning in for the night. I have been following the progress of grand minimums for years on this blog and puzzled over the increase of volcanic activity during grand minimums but never considered an increase in powerful earth quakes. The authors make a strong case for grand minimums being a causal factor in triggering these strong earth quakes. Recommend readers review the evidence and draw their conclusions.

What the actual process that causes the grand minimum earth quakes is not clear, does a cooler planet shrink, causing plates to shift and slip? Does the decrease in magnetosphere create some torque on the rotation of the molten core, in turn creating stress on the crustal shell? Are historical cycles good indicators of future events. What would the Reverend Bayes say after a statistical analysis?

According to the authors, we should be preparing for some strong earth quakes in California, Oregon, Washington and Mississippi River Valley as we pass over the cusp to the next grand minimum. This book may be enough evidence to convince you the preppers have some credibility. Those citizens that prepare will have a greater chance of survival, those that do not will perish in the chaos. Where do you stand?

H/T to Anthony  Mengotto for alerting me to this book.

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Is Our Sun Slowing Down in Its Middle Age?

By: Monica Bobra writing in Sky and Telescope

The Sun, now halfway through its life, might be slowing its magnetic activity, researchers say, which could lead to permanent changes in the sunspots and auroras we see.

We all slow down in middle age, has our sun reached that point?

There is evidence that Sun-like stars slow their magnetic activity after reaching middle age. And the Sun is, in fact, at just that age. But while we might be seeing some evidence of a slow-down, the process will likely happen over thousands, if not millions, of years. Furthermore, this is not the first time that the Sun has deviated from previous behavior. During a 70-year period in the 17th century, the Sun shed all but a few of its sunspots, only to right its course again.

Well maybe not! It could just be another overlapping cycle.

And maybe we’re not seeing a slow-down at all. While the strongest sunspot cycle rises and falls over the course of 11 years, there are other sunspot cycles that rise and fall over longer timespans. These other cycles could affect the 11-year cycle. So we can’t yet conclude that the Sun’s relatively recent changes are permanent. The best thing to do is just keep on looking: There are many more clues buried in the Sun’s many heartbeats.

I write about some of those cycles in a paper on the Dalton Minimum. dalton_minimum

Here is a chart from that paper showing the multiple solar cycles:

Your thoughts?  Middle age sun, or just another cycle?

Monster Solar Minimum Approaching

 

Guest essay by David Archibald at Watts Up With That

This recent post was on the fact that the Sun’s EUV emissions had fallen to solar minimum-like levels well ahead of solar minimum. The implication was that the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was either going to be very deep and prolonged, or that Solar Cycle 24 would be very short, which in turn would be strange for a weak cycle.

David provides extensive graphics to make his points at the link. He also included a model developed by a retired B52 Pilot Ed Fix that predicts minimum in 2017.

Historic sun spots record is in green, the model plot is in red.

Figure 6: Ed Fix’s solar activity model

The model has the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2017. Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to be weak and short also. If events of the next year or so prove Ed Fix’s model to be correct, then it will be as significant as the results of any of the expeditions to observe solar phenomena over the last three centuries, but we get to watch in real time.

2017 will be an interesting solar year, tracking the validity of Ed Fix’s model.   Are we going to reach minimum by the end of 2017?  Your thoughts?

Sunspots and Volcanos?[Updated]

Anthony Mengotto in a comment brought up and interesting point, the sun is growing quiet, while volcanism is increasing. I have always wondered it there was a connection. Does vulcanism fluctuate with the increase and decrease of sunspots? The Smithsonian/USGS Weekly reports go back to the winter of 2000, which covers the Solar Cycle 23 peak and Solar Cycle 24 peak. This data allowed me to take a median date for the peaks and compare with the number of active volcanos. I did the same for Solar Cycle 23 minimum and the most recent measurement as Solar Cycle 24 seeks the minimum. The results are in the chart below.

It looks like there could be a relationship, high spots lower vulcanism, fewer spots higher vulcanism.

I picked the mid-point of the high spot count and low spots just to test the idea. There was a lot of variation in the numbers, so a more valid analysis might be to pick four fixed points in each year and plot the results on a graph of the sunspots. Plus, minimum is not until 2019 -2020.  I will use this analysis as a Python learning project, so stay tuned.

Readers thoughts are most welcome.

Update: this is the chart that got me thinking about grand minimums and volcanos:

Solar Minimum in 2019-2020

According to the NASA Video below the next solar minimum is on the way and should arrive by 2019

As the next solar minimum is exposed by time, I will be focusing more on this event and its potential impact on the climate and our daily lives.

One of the events associated with a quiet sun in the increased number of high-energy cosmic rays that can reach the earth and it’s atmosphere. These cosmic rays are mention in the video. Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus project have been tracking the increase in cosmic rays since 2015 When the number of sunspots started to decline.

Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly “down to Earth” form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes.

See Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere at Spaceweather.com for more details.