A Cool Question, Answered?

David Archibald considers David Evans’ notch-filter model is a big advance in climate science. Validation is coming very soon.

Watts Up With That?

frozen_earthGuest essay by David Archibald

A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.

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Global Cooling Imminent

“Sharp cooling” to hit in the next five years, says new solar theory.

“If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us,” says Dr David Evans. “The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.”

There is a delay — probably of around 11 years — between changes in sunlight and temperatures on Earth, says Evans.

Because of that delay, and the sudden drop in solar irradiance about 10 years ago, Evans expects a sharp cooling to hit in the next five years.

Evans provides a graph of solar radiation since 1610, when sunspots were first recorded. The brown line shows solar radiation, which peaks about every 11 years due to the sunspot cycle. The red line is an 11-year smoother.

total-solar-irradiance

“There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last 400 years,” says Evans.

“The first was in the 1600s. It led to the depths of the Little Ice Age, and the Maunder Minimum. This was the coldest period during the last 400 years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.

“The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last 400 years, called the Dalton Minimum.

“The third fall occurred recently, starting in about 2004. This recent fall is as big as the fall in Napoleon’s time, almost as large as the fall in the 1600s, and it seems to be steeper than either of those falls. But the temperature hasn’t fallen … yet.

“Around the world a billion dollars a day is invested in renewable energy, largely with the hope of changing the weather,” says the joannenova.com.au website. Given that 20% of the world does not even have access to electricity, history books may marvel at how screwed priorities were, and how bureaucratized science cost so much more than the price of the grants.

And yet, says joannenova, our five-star politicians are preparing only for global warming.”

See entire article HERE.

H/T to Ice Age Now for the story summary.

Skeptics Being Skeptical of Skeptics Discover Government Zombie Weather Stations

It may have been cooling when the computer said warming. Stay tuned, this is going to be interesting. This is cross posted from http://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/

Sierra Foothill Commentary

One Skeptic said that Government was altering 40% of climate data records.

Last week, the mainstream media was abuzz with claims by skeptical blogger Steve Goddard that NOAA and NASA have dramatically altered the US temperature record.

Other Skeptics said the first Skeptic was wrong. But on farther investigation it was discovered that there was a major bug in the US Historical Climate Change Network data base used to calculate the historical temperature changes in the US. The computer programs were continuing to calculate temperatures for station that were closed, using nearby stations that were compromised by siting issues to calculate a zombie temperature.  In some cases the program was substituting calculated data, when the real data was available in the station record.

Anthony Watts has the full story HERE, demonstrating that the scientific method works when confirmation bias is constrained.

What is going on is that the USHCN…

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Maunder and Dalton Sunspot Minima

See Willis’ Challenge at the bottom of the post. This is a very challenging analysis.

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

In a recent interchange over at Joanne Nova’s always interesting blog, I’d said that the slow changes in the sun have little effect on temperature. Someone asked me, well, what about the cold temperatures during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima? And I thought … hey, what about them? wiki 400 years of sunspot observationsI realized that like everyone else, up until now I’ve just accepted the idea of cold temperatures being a result of the solar minima as an article of faith … but I’d never actually looked at the data. And in any case, I thought, what temperature data would we have for the Maunder sunspot minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715? So … I went back to the original sources, which as always is a very interesting ride, and I learned a lot.

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Solar Update June 2014 – The sun is still slumping along

“It seems that Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude of 7 remains the only one in the public domain. The reputational risk for solar physicists in making a prediction remains too great.”

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by David Archibald

The following is a series of graphs that depict the current and past state of the sun.

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New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

Watts Up With That?

sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick:  A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.

Highlights

► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

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A sign of cooling? New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes

Watts Up With That?

From McGill University

New permafrost is forming around Twelvemile Lake in Alaska, but researchers have concluded that this permafrost will have disappeared by the end of the century due to continued climate change.

Researchers from McGill and the U.S. Geological Survey, more used to measuring thawing permafrost than its expansion, have made a surprising discovery. There is new permafrost forming around Twelvemile Lake in the interior of Alaska. But they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.

Twelvemile Lake, and many others like it, is disappearing. Over the past thirty years, as a result of climate change and thawing permafrost, the lake water has been receding at an alarming rate. It is now 5 metres or 15 feet shallower than it would have been three decades ago. This is a big change in a very short…

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