Review: The West Without Water (Edited)

I was in Mendocino at the Gallery Bookshop when I spotted The West Without Water by B. Lynn Ingram and Francis Malamud-Roam on a shelf reserved for environmental books, one of the larger categories in this excellent book shop in liberal land on the coast. According to the book flap information on Amazon:

The West Without Water documents the tumultuous climate of the American west over twenty millennia, with tales of past droughts and deluges and predictions about the impacts of future climate change on water resources. Looking at the region’s current water crisis from the perspective of its climate history, the authors ask the central question of what is “normal” climate for the West, and whether the relatively benign climate of the past century will continue into the future.

The West without Water merges climate and paleoclimate research from a wide variety of sources as it introduces readers to key discoveries in cracking the secrets of the region’s climatic past. It demonstrates that extended droughts and catastrophic floods have plagued the West with regularity over the past two millennia and recounts the most disastrous flood in the history of California and the West, which occurred in 1861–62. The authors show that, while the West may have temporarily buffered itself from such harsh climatic swings by creating artificial environments and human landscapes, our modern civilization may be ill-prepared for the future climate changes that are predicted to beset the region. They warn that it is time to face the realities of the past and prepare for a future in which fresh water may be less reliable.

This is a very interesting book that provided some climate history that I was unfamiliar, with especially the 1861-62 flood in the Central Valley. I thought is was just in Sacramento, but it was the whole valley,  filled like a bathtub 10 feet deep. Records spanning the last 2000 years indicate these huge floods happened once or twice per century. We may be close to a major flood event in the near future, according to the cyclical record.  These flood events were more prevalent during cold periods, like the Little Ice Age. And, we are on the cusp of the next grand minimum, an extended cooling period according to leading solar scientists. 

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Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics

Cliff Ollier

School of Earth and Environmental Studies, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia Department of Geoecology and Palaeogeography, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin, Poland  

Abstract:

The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threat- ened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept respon- sibility for their projections.

Copy of Paper is HERE.

The paper has this to say about The Sun’s Influence: 

The sun is the major control of climate, but not simply by irradiation, and not by irradiation modified by greenhouse gases. Nobody can deny that climate varies, so what causes variation in energy gained from the sun?

Milankovitch cycles result from changes in the distance to the sun, but more important are sun spots and solar cycles. There is a very good cor- relation of sunspots and climate. Periods of low sunspots go with colder climate. The probable mechanism was discovered by Svensmark et al. (2007). During periods of low solar activity (solar minima), more cosmic rays reach Earth, poten- tially creating ultra-small aerosol particles which are precursors to cloud condensation nuclei. This causes more low level cloud formation, more low level clouds means more sunlight reflected back into space, which in turn means less heating of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Archibald (2007) pointed out that the longer a solar cycle lasts, the cooler the following solar cycle will be. Solar cycles are normally 11 years long, but solar cycle 23 lasted 12.5years. Solar Cycle 24 has start- ed and we can expect serious cooling. Solar Cycle 23 seems to resemble most closely Solar Cycle 4, and if the trend continues we should be heading for a Dalton Minimum. Ken Schatten, the solar physicist with the best track record in predicting solar cycles, suggests we could be heading for a Maunder Minimum. There is also a De Vries cycle of 210 years, and the last one was 201 years ago, so the next one is due. If the two cycles are superimposed it will be even colder.

 I have been examining the multiple solar cycles for years and have arrived at a similar conclusion. If the two cycles are superimposed we are going to need some warm clothes, but the real danger is much shorter growing seasons, resulting in food shortages. Stay Tuned.

Sea Level Decline and Global Cooling

Russ Steele

According to geologists there is ample evidence that as glaciers and ice fields build up, sea levels drop. In the distant past these declining sea levels created land bridges between islands and in one case continents during the last ice age.  Humans and bears walked across the Bering Strait,  the relatively narrow and shallow strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in Alaska, when sea leveld were 400 feet lower than today.

A recently study published by the American Metrological Society reported that Greenland’s ice fields have increased by 12% since the little ice age, with an increase between1840-1996 making the trend 30% higher than that of 1600-2009, suggesting an accelerating accumulation rate. More HERE.

This would suggest that sea level rise should be slowing, as the ice field build up traps the water in the ice. P. Gosselin recently posted this study at the NoTricksZone.

Meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls: Sea Level Rise Has Slowed 34% Over The Last Decade!

German veteran meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls here has done an analysis of sea level rise. Contrary to claims made by fringe alarmist physicists, we see that sea level rise has decelerated markedly since 2003.

It appears that those living on beaches around the world can relax a bit, as the sea level rise that started as the last ice age come to an end.  If we have another grand minimum, it may start a sea level decline creating more beach front for those living on the ocean.