The Sun Has Gone Quiet

Details at theSI Weather, where I have selected a segment which may be of interest blog readers.

solar-stuff-gifConsequences of a weak solar cycle

First, the weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.

Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.

Posted in Cosmic Rays, Dalton, History, Maunder, Solar | 4 Comments

Coldest Antarctic June Ever Recorded

Russ Steele:

Next Grand Minimum’s do not just arrive complete, they creep in with setting records one year, then again and again over a generation. This maybe a stating point for the Next Grand Minimum.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

Antarctica continues to defy the global warming script, with a report from Meteo France, that June this year was the coldest Antarctic June ever recorded, at the French Antarctic Dumont d’Urville Station.

View original 135 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

A Colder Climate is a Drier Climate

Russ Steele:

Cold air brings more drought than warm air. Why do the warmest insist that warm air and droughts are our biggest danger?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

In trying to understand how the US agricultural system will respond to lower solar activity, and thus a posited colder climate, we have to go way back. As far back as the 1970s in fact when it was still possible for academics to publish books and papers on the effects of climatic cooling. In 1977, Reid Bryson and Thomas Murray published a book entitled Climates of Hunger. The book is old enough that Stephen Schneider is credited with reviewing the manuscript, from his time as a cooling alarmist. 

View original 686 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Peak solar geomagnetic activity shows a ~66% decline over the past 3 solar cycles

According to solar experts, the “general consensus is that we’ve passed the peak” of the current ~11-year solar cycle. If solar geomagnetic activity has also peaked for the current solar cycle, the Ap index of geomagnetic activity declined about 66% so far at solar maxima over the past three solar cycles. The Ap index is one of many indicators of solar activity including total solar irradiance, sunspots, radio flux, and several others, and has particular relevance to the Svensmark cosmic ray theory of climate.

Solar geomagnetic activity shields galactic cosmic rays from Earth, which according to Svensmark’s theory, nucleate cloud formation. It will be interesting over the next several years to see if this decline in solar geomagnetic activity is found to increase cloud formation and potentially surface cooling.

ap index

Hat Tip to HockeySchtick

In the past, a decline in solar activity has resulted in a cooler planet. Stay Tuned!

 

Posted in Analysis, Solar | 1 Comment

A Cool Question, Answered?

Russ Steele:

David Archibald considers David Evans’ notch-filter model is a big advance in climate science. Validation is coming very soon.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

frozen_earthGuest essay by David Archibald

A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.

View original 460 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Global Cooling Imminent

“Sharp cooling” to hit in the next five years, says new solar theory.

“If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us,” says Dr David Evans. “The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.”

There is a delay — probably of around 11 years — between changes in sunlight and temperatures on Earth, says Evans.

Because of that delay, and the sudden drop in solar irradiance about 10 years ago, Evans expects a sharp cooling to hit in the next five years.

Evans provides a graph of solar radiation since 1610, when sunspots were first recorded. The brown line shows solar radiation, which peaks about every 11 years due to the sunspot cycle. The red line is an 11-year smoother.

total-solar-irradiance

“There have been three big, steep falls in solar radiation in the last 400 years,” says Evans.

“The first was in the 1600s. It led to the depths of the Little Ice Age, and the Maunder Minimum. This was the coldest period during the last 400 years. There used to be fairs on the ice in the Thames River in London, because it would freeze over for weeks at a time.

“The second fall is around the time of Napoleon and it preceded the second coldest period in the last 400 years, called the Dalton Minimum.

“The third fall occurred recently, starting in about 2004. This recent fall is as big as the fall in Napoleon’s time, almost as large as the fall in the 1600s, and it seems to be steeper than either of those falls. But the temperature hasn’t fallen … yet.

“Around the world a billion dollars a day is invested in renewable energy, largely with the hope of changing the weather,” says the joannenova.com.au website. Given that 20% of the world does not even have access to electricity, history books may marvel at how screwed priorities were, and how bureaucratized science cost so much more than the price of the grants.

And yet, says joannenova, our five-star politicians are preparing only for global warming.”

See entire article HERE.

H/T to Ice Age Now for the story summary.

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, History, Maunder, Solar | 6 Comments

Skeptics Being Skeptical of Skeptics Discover Government Zombie Weather Stations

Russ Steele:

It may have been cooling when the computer said warming. Stay tuned, this is going to be interesting. This is cross posted from http://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/

Originally posted on Sierra Foothill Commentary:

One Skeptic said that Government was altering 40% of climate data records.

Last week, the mainstream media was abuzz with claims by skeptical blogger Steve Goddard that NOAA and NASA have dramatically altered the US temperature record.

Other Skeptics said the first Skeptic was wrong. But on farther investigation it was discovered that there was a major bug in the US Historical Climate Change Network data base used to calculate the historical temperature changes in the US. The computer programs were continuing to calculate temperatures for station that were closed, using nearby stations that were compromised by siting issues to calculate a zombie temperature.  In some cases the program was substituting calculated data, when the real data was available in the station record.

Anthony Watts has the full story HERE, demonstrating that the scientific method works when confirmation bias is constrained.

What is going on is that the USHCN…

View original 341 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment