NOAA ENSO Model Now Forecasting a Supercalifragilistic El Niño for 2015/16 Season

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

First: Congratulations to the teeny-tiny 2014/15 El Niño. It’s now official. NOAA included it as an “official warm event” on their Oceanic NINO Index this week.

NOAA’s CFS.v2 model (dated April 9, 2015, source here) is now forecasting a strong El Niño for this upcoming ENSO season, or as blogger Alec, aka Daffy Duck called it, “a supercalifragilistic el nino” when he brought the forecast to my attention here. See Figure 1. That forecast is noticeably higher than the one that shows up on page 25 of the NOAA weekly ENSO update, which was dated April 4th.

Figure 1

Figure 1

If you live in California and are hoping for drought relief, I wouldn’t get my hopes up just yet. It’s still (boreal) springtime, and ENSO forecasts have a hurdle called the “spring prediction barrier”. Basically, El Nino forecasts have a bad…

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No wonder they call him ‘moonbeam’ – California Governor Jerry Brown claims Global Warming causes extreme cold

Russ Steele:

Look folks, it our governor and we elected him. We are as much to blame for this stupidity and he is. I would be interested in how a pause in global warming for 18 years produces sever cold. I think that Governor Brown must have been protesting during science class.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Remember this eye roller from Brown where he claimed LAX was at risk from sea level rise, only to have to walkback the claim the next day after it was pointed out on WUWT that LAX is well above sea level?

Brown_LAX_SLR He’s at it again. Eric Worrall writes:

California Governor Jerry Brown has declared senator Ted Cruz is “unfit for office”, because Cruz doesn’t believe that global warming is the cause of the extreme cold in America’s North East.

According to CNN;

“What he said is absolutely false,” Brown said. “Over 90% of the scientists who deal with climate are absolutely convinced that the humans’ activity, industrial activity … are building up in the atmosphere, they’re heat trapping, and they’re causing not just one drought in California but severe storms and cold on the East Coast.”

What can I say – without experts like Jerry to explain the…

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Is the Solar System’s Galactic Motion Imprinted in the Phanerozoic Climate?

Russ Steele:

This is an interesting theory and is provided for your examination and evaluation. We live on a planet in a complex galactic neighborhood.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Kirby Schlaht

Nir Joseph Shaviv is an Israeli-American physics professor, carrying out research in the fields of astrophysics and climate science. He is a professor at the Racah Institute of Physics of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.He is also a member of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton.

He is best known for his controversial solar and cosmic-ray hypothesis of climate change. In 2002, Shaviv hypothesized that passages through the Milky Way’s spiral arms appear to have been the cause behind the major ice-age epochs over the past billion years.

In 2014 Shaviv and coworkers published the paper “Is the Solar System’s Galactic Motion Imprinted in the Phanerozoic Climate?in Scientific Reports. Fossil shells, mainly brachiopods with some conodonts and belemnites are proposed as chronometers with a physical mechanism inferred to exists to link the solar system’s vertical motion through the galaxy to the terrestrial…

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The Geography of USCRN Average Air Temperature Trends during the 2004-2014 Decade over the Contiguous United States

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by Samuel I Outcalt

The USCRN monthly average air temperature records were searched for continuous records covering the 2004 to 2014 decade over the contiguous United States. The average values were selected as these averages represented the average of several sensors. The records represent mid-month averages so a simple interpolation algorithm was used to convert the x-axis of plots from continuous months with an initial index value of zero to fractional years [ x = 2004+(1/24) + (x/12) ]. As mid month data was used, the record stream ran from 1 January 2004 to 1 January 2015. The graph for Elgin, Arizona is displayed as Figure 1.

Figure 1. The record for Elgin, Arizona.

It was later discovered that Elgin was the only record that could NOT be easily included in within an area of stations having a negative trend during the decade.

The map of the station…

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4 of the 5 Great Lakes about to freeze over

Russ Steele:

Is this more evidence we are on the cusp of the next grand minimum?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Composite image of the East and West NATICE products for the Great Lakes, see links below for originals Composite image of the East and West NATICE products for the Great Lakes, see links below for originals

Corky Boyd writes:

The latest NATICE graphics show Lake Erie totally covered with 9/10+ ice, Lakes Superior and Huron are nearly totally covered with 9/10+ and Ontario about 80% covered with 7/10+.  It is likely Superior and Huron will join Erie with total coverage of 9/10+  in today or tomorrow’s report.

It is possible Ontario could do the same as it is experiencing near or sub-zero temperatures tonight.

The NATICE daily reports are posted about 5:00pm EST.  Link is here:

If you have trouble pulling up the ice charts, here are direct links to the West and East areas for Feb. 18:

It is an unusual event for 3 of the lakes to freeze over, which only happens once every 6 to 8 years.  Four or more freezing is…

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Solar Cycle 24 Update for February 2015

Russ Steele:

The sun has an impact, the question is what is the real impact of sunspots. Some information for your own evaluation.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Solar cycle 24 contines to be lower than the vast majority of predictions that came out during the waning years of solar cycle 23. David Archibald gives an update on the current progress of solar cycle 24, showing that it remains quite low, and under-performs almost all of the “official”predictions based on models and other forecasting tools, some of which claimed as late as 2006 that cycle 24 would be 30-50% stronger that cycle 23. So far, solar Cycle 24 has been most like Solar Cycles 10 to 15 which started in 1855 and ended in 1923. It is noteworthy that solar cycle 10 produced the famed Carrington event, which if it occurred today, would likely wreak havoc with our sensitive electric grid and electronics.

Guest essay by David Archibald.


Figure 1: Sunspot Number

Source: SILSO data/image, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels

Solar Cycle 24 has been…

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Early Sunspots and Volcanoes

Russ Steele:

Maybe there was a Maunder Minimum and may be it was only the result of some missing data. Willis Eschenbach, does the analysis.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Well, as often happens I started out in one direction and then I got sidetractored … I wanted to respond to Michele Casati’s claim in the comments of my last post. His claim was that if we include the Maunder Minimum in the 1600’s, it’s clear that volcanoes with a VEI greater or equal to 5 are affected by sunspots. Based on my previous analysis I figured “No way!”, but I thought I should take a look … and as is often the case, I ended up studying something entirely different.

Now, the SIDC monthly sunspot record that I used in my last analysis starts in 1700. Prior to that the only sunspot numbers available are a “reconstruction” by Hoyt and Schatten called the “Group Sunspot Number”, which is the dataset used by Michele. The Hoyt/Schatten Group sunspot data is available here. Now, as…

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