By James A. Marusek, Retired U.S. Navy Physicist who is warning us of what is to come.
The sun is undergoing a state change. It is possible that we may be at the cusp of the next Little Ice Age. For several centuries the relationship between periods of quiet sun and a prolonged brutal cold climate on Earth (referred to as Little Ice Ages) have been recognized. But the exact mechanisms behind this relationship have remained a mystery. We exist in an age of scientific enlightenment, equipped with modern tools to measure subtle changes with great precision. Therefore it is important to try and come to grips with these natural climatic drivers and mold the evolution of theories that describe the mechanisms behind Little Ice Ages.
The sun changes over time. There are decadal periods when the sun is very active magnetically, producing many sunspots. These periods are referred to as Solar Grand Maxima. And then there are periods when the sun is very weak producing few sunspot. These periods are called Solar Grand Minima. Solar Grand Minima correspond to dark cold glooming periods called Little Ice Ages. And there are states in-between. During most of the 20th century, the sun was in a Solar Grand Maxima. But that came to an abrupt end beginning in July 2000. The sun produced 6 massive explosions in rapid succession. Each of these explosions produced solar proton events with a proton flux greater than 10,000 pfu @ >10 MeV. These occurred in July 2000, November 2000, September 2001, two in November 2001, and a final one in October 2003. And there hasn’t been any of this magnitude since. Then the sun produced one of the weakest solar minimums since the Ap Index was first recorded (beginning in 1932). The current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is very weak. Not quite weak enough to be called a Solar Grand Minima but very close. It is analogous to a period referred to as a ‘Dalton Minimum’.
As we transitioned from a Grand Solar Maxima, which typified the 20th century to a magnetically quiet solar period similar to a Dalton Minimum (~1798-1823 A.D.), it gave us the opportunity to observe the changes in solar parameters across this transition.
I propose two mechanisms primarily responsible for Little Ice Age climatic conditions. These two components are Cloud Theory and Wind Theory. At the core of Cloud Theory are galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and at the core of Wind Theory are diamond dust ice crystals. During Little Ice Ages, there is an increase of low level clouds that cause a general global cooling and an alteration of the jet streams that drives cold air from upper latitudes deep into the mid latitude regions.
Little Ice Age conditions are defined not only by colder temperatures but also by a shift in the patterns of wind streams. They produce long-lasting locked wind stream patterns responsible for great floods and great droughts. They also affect the cycle of seasons producing great irregularity and crop failures. Altered wind streams impacts the development of massive storms and hurricanes. These Little Ice Age conditions in the past caused poor crop yields, famines, major epidemics, mass migration, war, and major political upheavals.
Read the full document HERE: Little_Ice_Age_Theory
Be sure to read Appendix A which catalogs the climate extremes during the Maunder Minimum. We are on the cusp of a Grand Minimum, Dalton or Maunder type, only time will tell.
Russ, Geoff Sharp asked a really good question given we have had 8 spotless days in a row on the sun. His question was, Have we reached solar minimum already? Well, I went back and did some home work on it and here is what I came up with. Out of 23 solar cycles we have had (1) of 13 years or more, (4) of 12 to 12.11 years long, (6) of 11 to 11.11years long, (8) of 10 to 10.11 years long, (4) of 9 to 9.11 years long. Based on these cycle years, (8) being the highest in the 10 year to 10 year 11 month cycle length, he might be right. What do you think, could he be right and others be wrong about this cycle being so long?
Very good article
“Global Crisis : War, climate change and catastrophe in the seventeenth century.” by Geoffrey Parker is mentioned in the article. I highly recommend this book..
Thanks Jeremy, I will check out Parker’s book.
Also a good read
By John l Casey
Marusek’s forecast for Solar Cycle 25: http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Forecast_for_Solar_Cycle_25.pdf
Reblogged this on Climate- Science.