Will the solar doldrums of the coming decades lead to cooling? A look at the latest scientific publications

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

(Translated/edited by NoTricksZone)

Seldom has the sun been as strong as we have seen it over the last 5 decades. Is it just a coincidence that the largest warming of the last 500 years occurred during this phase?

Just a few years ago the tide changed when the sun ended its hyperactive phase. Few people had anticipated this, and so it was a surprise for many. Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard of California’s Stanford University expressed it as follows at the American Geophysical Union last December:

“None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So we will learn something.”

And so science commenced to consider and think about what all this could lead to. The latest works on the subject include Qian et al. 2014 (“Secular changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere between two quiet Sun periods“), Zhao et al. 2014 (Modulation of galactic cosmic rays during the unusual solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24) and McCracken & Beer 2014 (Comparison of the extended solar minimum of 2006–2009 with the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima in solar activity in the past).

After a number of studies it has become clearer: It’s only the beginning! It is expected that the sun will continue becoming quieter over the coming decades. This has pretty much become the consensus among solar physicists. The latest studies on the subject come from Roth & Joos 2013, who assume a decline in solar activity to normal levels will occur during the 21st century. Salvador 2013 goes further and anticipates a solar minimum for the coming 30-100 years. Read the original abstract:

Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. More importantly, I believe the model can be used to forecast future solar cycles quantitatively for 30 yr and directionally for 100 yr. The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr. The model is a slowly changing chaotic system with patterns that are never repeated in exactly the same way. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be made by looking at the model’s terms and relating them to aspects of the Tidal Torque theory and, possibly, Jovian magnetic field interactions.

– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2014/05/10/flurry-of-scientists-recent-peer-reviewed-papers-warning-of-approaching-little-ice-age/#sthash.6R7ynWo6.dpuf

4 thoughts on “Will the solar doldrums of the coming decades lead to cooling? A look at the latest scientific publications

  1. Andres Valencia May 10, 2014 / 8:39 pm

    Thanks, Russ. This is a very interesting article.
    I have placed links to The Next Grand Minimum in my climate and weather pages.

  2. emsnews May 11, 2014 / 8:58 am

    Dear Russ,

    My father, Dr. Aden Meinel, predicted exactly this five years ago. He decided to warn everyone, being one of the top solar experts in astronomy, so he tried to get his paper describing this coming solar cycle and IT WAS REJECTED.

    He was stunned. This is the first time in 60+ years he was denied publication. One editor said, ‘This is too scary, we don’t want to alarm anyone,’ which is hilarious with all the global warming studies that scream daily that we are all going to roast to death.

    My father is now dead and thus can’t enjoy vindication.

    Elaine Meinel Supkis

  3. Anthony j. Mengotto May 12, 2014 / 9:51 pm

    Russ, Since solar cycle 19, the sunspot count has been changed with over counting sun spec’s. Before cycle 19, counting was more on the normal range as it was decades before. This is why most solar physicists did not see this coming. All the solar cycles counted after cycle 18 are actually not the real count. They are over counted. So now we can see why there were so many cycles in a row that were the strongest during modern times. Also look at this chart you posted on 4/14/2014 https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/2014/04/14/record-snows-in-the-pacific-northwest-in-2019-2020/harris-mann_historic_temp_chart/ Did you notice that every time we warmed, the warming lasted less, and every time we cooled, the cooling lasted longer? Anthony

    • Russ Steele May 13, 2014 / 11:22 am

      And the cooling was colder and came on faster. I am reading a book that examines the last 5,000 years in the Sierra and the South West. I will have more to say when I finish the book. We are living on browed time in a chaotic world.


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