The Sun In A Funk- Sun Spots Not Rising (Updated 03-02)

Russ Steele

Anthony Watts has the story at WUWT in his post: The sun is still in a funk: sunspot numbers are dropping when they should be rising

I suggest interested readers check out the whole post at WUWT.  It has some interesting graphics that indicate the sun is not on a normal course. It is beginning to look more like the start of the Next Grand Minimum. Solar Cycle-24 is beginning to look like SC-5 or SC-6.

Here is an over lay of solar cycle 5 which was the beginning of the Dalton Minimum with the solar cycle 24:

This graphic is from “Beyond Landscheidt”   Since our ability to see spots today is greater than it was a century ago, a group has develop a Layman’s Count that only counts spots large enough to have been seen before. This is a little like hurricane and tornado counts which are higher today because we have better technology to see them.  The Layman’s Count has this cycle looking like cycle 5 in the early 1800s. Interestingly that cycle had an early spike like this one and then relaxed into a long, low plateau max and then long minimum.

We maybe on the cusp of the next grand minimum. The question is it a Dalton like minimum or a Maunder like.  As noted in the comments, Livingston and Penn have detected a decline the magnetic fields that was not evident during the Dalton.

 

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About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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3 Responses to The Sun In A Funk- Sun Spots Not Rising (Updated 03-02)

  1. Sean says:

    Russ,

    I don’t know if you ever go over to solar cycle 24 web page but I periodically check to see what Leif Svalgaard has to say about the how this and the next solar cycle is progressing. I was really surprised to see this quote, “The L&P effect is not present at every solar minimum and likely also not at the Dalton Minimum, but IMHO was present [the cause, actually] of the Maunder Minimum.” In the past, I’ve heard him say we are probably headed to a Dalton type minimum with only a low possibility of a Maunder type minimum. This is the first statement I’ve heard from him that says we may be in for quite a prolonged minimum. Here is the link to the page: http://solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1587&page=23#79847

  2. Russ says:

    Thanks for the link. Leif is a very cautious scientist. I will see what he has to say. I have added an overlay. I am going to Tucson and Kitt Peak to see how Livingston and Penn are doing their observations. I am looking for an opportunity to interview one of the L &P team following my visit.

  3. DavidG says:

    Good post, Russ. Most interesting.

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