The Sun’s Impact on the US Breadbasket Temperatures?

Russ Steele

Joe D’Aleo finds strong evidence for the Sun’s role in the US winter weather at the  WeatherBell

We have noted that the sun plays a role in climate and weather in many ways. When the sun is more active near solar maxima, the sun is slightly brighter and irradiance increases – 0.1% on most recent cycles, more in cycle 23.

There is also up to 10% more UV radiation which produces ozone chemistry related warming in low and middle latitudes high up in the atmosphere that works it’s way down to the mid-troposhpere as shown in data by Karin Labitzke in numerous papers in recent decades and in models by Hansen’s star climate modeller, Drew Shindell. Geomagnetic storms can affect high latitude patterns and blocking.

Diffusion of galactic cosmic rays which play a role in low water cloudiness through ion mediated nucleation can produce less low cloudiness (the Svensmark effect).

You can read the whole article here, but this is the graphic that caught my attention. Note the winter cooling over the last decade and the biggest drop in temperatures were in America’s breadbasket.

Decadal winter temperatures in US

As the winters cool, the probability of late spring killing frost and early fall frosts increase, shortening the growing season.  I am working on a growing season base line, with a way to measure the progression of killing spring frosts into the growing season. Or, backing off giving farmers a longer growing season. Stay tuned, there is more to come on spring killing frosts.


La Niña returns

Russ Steele

Bob Tisdale reports in his Weekly ENSO Index Drops Below The La Niña Threshold at Watts Up With That.

NINO3.4 SST anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) have dropped significantly below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña Event. They are presently at approximately -0.74 deg C.

NINO3.4 SST Anomalies


Weekly Global SST anomalies rose since the last mid-month update, but made a minor dip last week. Global SST anomalies usually lag NINO3.4 SST anomalies by a few months so the global SST anomalies should be nearing their seasonal peak for this year, before they start to respond to the depressed NINO3.4 SST anomalies. For the week centered on August 17, 2011, Global SST anomalies are +0.169 deg C. I’ve also included a shorter-term graph so that the most recent wiggles are visible.

via La Niña returns | Watts Up With That?.

La Niña has been a major factor in the drought in the Texas and the US South East and our large snow pack in the Sierra this last winter.  We may have another large snow pack and the droughts may continue. More on this latest weather event, when is is clear if the La Niña strengthens or if this reversal was temporary.

Environmentalist: Let’m freeze in the dark

Russ Steele

Climate activist who are promoting the dangers of global warming created by CO2 emissions are protesting the development of a pipe line from Canada’s oil sands to the US gulf coast. The latest protest was out side the White House, where 65 people were arrested.

The story is in The Hill:

Continue reading “Environmentalist: Let’m freeze in the dark”

Follow the patterns and see the cycles – Part I

Russ Steele

The impact of sunspots on the earths climate has been observed by many scientists. One of the first significant observation was about 200 years ago when astronomer William Herschel observed a correlation between wheat prices and sunspots. When there were fewer sunspots, he noted that the climate turned colder and drier. When crop yields fell due to a cold dry climate, wheat prices rose. When the weather was warm and wet the crop yields increased, and the price of wheat dropped.  Observation of this pattern resulted in a more detailed examination of the sunspot cycle and the relationship to climate changes on the planet.

In future posts I will start tracking the price of winter wheat. As David Archibald noted, when the sunspots decline, the earth cools and becomes dryer, as a result the ability of grow winter wheat in Canada’s bread basket also declines. This decline will be reflected in the price of winter wheat over the next 20 to 30 years.   Archibald’s Speech is here.

In the mid-1970s I was stationed by the Air Force in Arizona near the Anasazi Indians cliff dwellings I was intrigued by their building and agricultural skills. The question kept coming up in discussions with my oldest daughter, who was developing an interest in archaeology, where did the cliff dwellers go and why did they leave? The Anasazi Indians mysteriously vacated the Four Corners Region around 1300 AD and vanished. However, the migration started much earlier.

Continue reading “Follow the patterns and see the cycles – Part I”

Tracking the impact of the Next Grand Minimum

Russ Steele

One of the main impacts of the next Great Minimum will be on agriculture. ‘The Maunder Minimum was a period from about 1645-1715,  a time when sunspots became extremely rare. It was also a period when the world experienced successive crop failures. has this to say about the Maunder Minimum and crop failures.

During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to the thousands in modern times. The science is robust, and based on a systematic programme of observations conducted by the Observatoire de Paris. What is notable is that the Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle, and coldest part of, the so-called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced bitterly cold winters.

During the Little Ice Age the northern hemisphere cooling was only “modest”, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at less than 1° C. However, what may have been only ‘modest’ cooling on a hemispherical basis still had dramatic effects.

Continue reading “Tracking the impact of the Next Grand Minimum”

Variability has been a dominate mode throughout climate history

Russ Steele

I have been researching the social and political impacts of the last Grand Minimums, including the Dalton and the Maunder. I am currently reading Brian Fagan’s, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850.

It is clear that even during the Little Ice Age (LIA) the global temperatures varied widely with warm years and very cold years.  Year will lots of moisture, and years that were dry.  Problems rose for populated regions when there were multiple cold or very wet years in a row, or long periods of drought. The result was  crops failures. With limited year to year food and fodder storage it was hard to sustain enough food stuff to feed the existing population in many regions. Others were challenged, but managed to weather the storm of lower agriculture production.

Continue reading “Variability has been a dominate mode throughout climate history”

The Next Grand Minimum

Russ Steele

Three different teams of scientist studying the sun have concluded that the sun is entering a quiet period that may replicate a Dalton Minimum, or even a Maunder Minimum. Details here.

These Grand Minimums resulted in cooler temperature on the earth. Each of these cool periods had social and economic impacts, shared by millions across the globe. We can learn from these past events.  It was Sir William Herschel who noted the relationship between the sun and the weather when he discovered a correlation between sunspots and wheat prices in the early 1800s.  When the sun was quiet, the price of wheat went up, when the sun was active the price of wheat went down.

Continue reading “The Next Grand Minimum”