Meteorologist Paul Dorian writes about a Spaceweather.com Study, which was reported on here in January 2016.
Current cosmic ray activity
We happen to be in a weak solar cycle (24) which is actually on pace to be the weakest cycle in more than one hundred years. Therefore, it would not be surprising to have relatively high cosmic ray penetration into the Earth’s atmosphere; especially, since we are now heading towards the next solar minimum phase when solar activity is generally even quieter. During solar maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay.
In fact, for the past year, neutron monitors around the Arctic Circle have sensed an increasing intensity of cosmic rays. Polar latitudes are a good place to make such measurements, because Earth’s magnetic field funnels and concentrates cosmic radiation there. As it turns out, Earth’s poles aren’t the only place cosmic rays are intensifying. “Spaceweather.com” has led an effort in the launching of helium balloons to the stratosphere to measure radiation, and they find the same trend increasing intensity of cosmic rays over California. Their latest data show an increase of almost 13% since 2015. [For more on this study click here]:
Cosmic rays have been steadily increasing in recent months during historically weak solar cycle 24; plot courtesy spaceweather.com and California data courtesy study sponsored by spaceweather.com
In the plot, neutron monitor measurements from the University of Oulu Cosmic Ray Station are traced in red; gamma-ray/X-ray measurements over California are denoted in gray. The agreement between the two curves is remarkable. It means that the intensification of cosmic rays is making itself felt not only over the poles, but also over lower latitudes where Earth’s magnetic field provides a greater degree of protection against deep space radiation. There’s a new section on spaceweather.com where you can monitor cosmic rays in the atmosphere.
As reported elsewhere on this blog, here, more cosmic ray has been shown to produce more clouds, and more clouds reduce the plant’s temperature. We can expect some cooler climate as Solar Cycle 24 sunspots and CMEs decline.
Dr. Sten Odenwald, a retired astronomer and educator formerly with the National Institute of Aerospace and NASA writing in the Huffington Post. He concludes his sunspot article, Waiting For The Next Sunspot Cycle 2019-2030, with this view forward:
Statistically speaking, the current Cycle 24 is scheduled to draw to a close about 11 years after the previous sunspot minimum in January 2008, which means sometime in 2019. We entered the Cycle 24 sunspot minimum period in 2016 because in February and June, we already had two spot-free days. As the number of spot-free days continues to increase in 2017-2018, we will start seeing the new sunspots of Cycle 25 appear sometime in late-2019. Sunspot maximum is likely to occur in 2024, with most forecasts predicting about half as many sunspots as in Cycle 24.
The bad news is that some studies show sunspot magnetic field strengths have been declining since 2000 and are already close to the minimum needed to sustain sunspots on the solar surface. This is also supported by independent work in 2015 published in the journal Nature. By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all, spelling the end of the sunspot cycle phenomenon, and the start of another Maunder Minimum cooling period perhaps lasting until 2100.
But the good news seems to be that none of the current forecasts suggest Cycle 25 will be entirely absent. A few forecasts even hold out some hope that a sunspot maximum equal to or greater than Cycle 24 is possible.
Full article is HERE:
A new study confirms “solar variations affect the abundance of clouds in our atmosphere,” a solar amplification mechanism which is the basis of Svensmark’s theory of cosmo-climatology.
The solar eruptions are known to shield Earth’s atmosphere from cosmic rays. However, the new study, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shows that the global cloud cover is simultaneously reduced, supporting the idea that cosmic rays are important for cloud formation. The eruptions cause a reduction in cloud fraction of about 2 percent corresponding to roughly a billion tonnes of liquid water disappearing from the atmosphere.
As Dr. Roy Spencer notes,
“The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.”
The IPCC models fail to consider multiple solar amplification mechanisms, including cosmic rays and numerous other amplification mechanisms, thereby ignoring that solar activity can explain the 0.7C global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. Solar activity reached a grand maximum in the latter half of the 20th century, and accumulated solar energy (the ‘sunspot integral’) explains global temperature change since 1900 with greater than 97% statistical significance. This new paper confirms that solar activity variation can account for a 2% variation in global cloud cover, sufficient to explain the warming of the 20th century and without any consideration of CO2 “radiative forcing.”
H/T to Mark Morano
With a quiet sun on the horizon, we can expect more clouds and more cooling. Some scientists are predicting Solar Cycle-25 will be less active than the current Solar Cycle-24. Other scientists are not so sure, predicting that SC-25 will be similar to SC-25. This study provides a mechanism for the Maunder Minimum to cool the planet, creating brutal winters and cool summers, shortening the growing season with late spring frost and early fall storms. We could be on the cusp of the next grand minimum; only time will validate this assumption.
Professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University is being attacked by climate change proponents for publishing research suggesting there could be a 35-year period of low solar activity that could usher in an “ice age.”
Zharkova and her team of researchers released a study on sunspot modeling, finding that solar activity could fall to levels not seen since the so-called “Little Ice Age” of the 1600s. Zharkova’s conclusions may have huge implications for global temperature modeling, but her analysis is not accepted by some climate scientists.
In fact, Zharkova said some scientists even tried to have her research suppressed.
Read more HERE:
She suggests it could be a repeat of the so-called Maunder Minimum – a period in the 17th century with little solar activity that may have influenced a cooling on Earth.
Whatever we do to the planet, if everything is done only by the sun, then the temperature should drop similar like it was in the Maunder Minimum. At least in the Northern hemisphere, where this temperature is well protocoled and written. We didn’t have many measurements in the Southern hemisphere, we don’t know what will happen with that, but in the Northern hemisphere, we know it’s very well protocoled. The rivers are frozen. There are winters and no summers, and so on.
So we only hope because these Maunder Minima will be shorter, the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century was about 65 years, the Maunder Minimum which we expect will be lasting not longer than 30-35 years.
Of course things are not the same as they were in the 17th century – we have a lot more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. And it will be interesting to see how the terrestrial and the solar influences play out.
This is promising research – a new insight into our sun with predictions as to its future behavior, yet Professor Zharkova relates than some climatologists resented her discovery.
What do you think? Are we on the cusp of the next little ice age?
The surface of the Earth was bathed in life-damaging radiation from nearby supernovae on several different occasions over the past nine million years. That is the claim of an international team of astronomers, which has created a computer model that suggests that high-energy particles from the supernovae created ionizing radiation in Earth’s atmosphere that reached ground level. This influx of radiation, the astronomers say, potentially changed the course of the Earth’s climate and the evolution of life.
More details HERE. The part that interested me was the impact of cosmic rays on the climate, through increased cloud cover.
The cosmic rays may have also changed Earth’s climate. The most recent batch of supernovae came just before Earth entered a series of ice ages, at the end of which paved the way for humans to emerge. One possible link between the supernovae and climate is that muons in the lower atmosphere affected cloud cover, thereby cooling the planet.
“When ionization takes place down in the troposphere, where all our weather occurs, what will that do to our weather and climate?” asks Melott. “I’m not going to claim it causes ice ages, but it’s a possibility that needs to be investigated.”
The next step, says Melott, is to scour the geological record, searching for any evidence that supernovae really did have an effect, while further refining the models describing the propagation of cosmic rays from supernovae through space.
A quiet sun reduces the influence of the magnetosphere on cosmic rays, thus more high energy cosmic rays reach the lower atmosphere producing more cloud cover and a cooler planet. Low sunspots could enhance the impact of a supernova.
Canada Free Press
Meteorologist and renowned sun-watcher Paul Dorian raised the alarm in his latest report: “for the second time this month the sun has gone completely blank.” The blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an increasing number of spotless days over the next few. “If history is any guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a cooling impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom most layer of Earth’s atmosphere—and where we all live,” says Dorian.
Mr. Dorian’s findings back research by professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University, who warned that a predicted sharp decline in solar activity between 2020 and 2050 is a sign another ice age is coming.
A recent presentation by a team of European researchers indicates that reduced solar activity will lead to a mini ice age from 2030 to 2040. Another study of sunspots last year by Indian, Chinese and Japanese astronomers indicates that a new ice age could start as soon as 2020 and reach its depths by 2030 to 2040.
Details, including references HERE.
I am reading A Cultural History of Climate, by Wolfgang Behringer, after spotting it as one the reference used by Andy May is his Watts Up With That post on Climate and Human Civilization for the Past 4,000 Years. This a fascinating account of climate change’s impact on human history.
From the Amazon Book Review [edited]:
Global warming and the future of the climate is one of the greatest challenges of our time, but what do we know about climate variations 500 years ago, or 5000 years ago? How can we know anything at all about the history of weather? What impact has climate changes had on human prosperity and the spirit of invention?
In this major new book, Wolfgang Behringer introduces us to the latest historical research on the development of the earth’s climate. He focuses above all on the cultural reactions to climate change through the ages, showing how even minor modifications in the environment sometimes resulted in significant social, political and religious upheavals. By examining how our predecessors responded to climate changes, Behringer provides us with a fresh basis for thinking about how we might address the serious climatic challenges we face today.
I was struck by the variability in the climate even during the cold periods, including droughts, floods, extreme heat and cold as reported in the letters, journals, and sermons by those experiencing these conditions. These first-hand reports were chilling when you consider we are on the cusp of the Next Grand Minimum.