The NOAA/NASA-co-chaired international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel has released its latest forecast for to forecast Solar Cycle 25. The panel’s consensus calls for a peak in July 2025 (±8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be of average intensity and similar to Cycle 24. The panel additionally concurred that the solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April 2020 (±6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the seventh longest on record at 11.4 years. In its preliminary forecast released last April, the scientists on the panel forecast that Solar Cycle 25 would likely be weak, much like the current Cycle 24.
“Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots,” the panel said last spring, adding with “high confidence” that Cycle 25 “should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles.” The panel said the expectation that Cycle 25 would be comparable in size to Cycle 24 suggests that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude seen from Cycle 21 through Cycle 24 has ended and that there is no indication of an approaching “Maunder-type” minimum. Cycle 24 peaked in April 2014 with an average sunspot number of 82. [Emphasis Added]
The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment Services, and other US and international scientists.
No Maunder-like minimum. Oh well – time to shut down this site.
Well, this forecast is completely different from the one made earlier this year by NASA researcher Irina Kitiashvili (June 2019), who’s predicting that Solar Cycle 25 will be the weakest of past 200 years (to be about 55% lower than maximum Solar Cycle 24 levels). Her Powerpoint presentation is available using Google search (“Solar Activity Forecast for the Next Decade”). It’s worth a look.
A panel of scientists concurs, isn’t science. It is a popularity contest. Science however does predict cycle 25 will peak with fewer sunspots and 26 is predicted to peak with even lower count.
Wahoo … would welcome a pointer or two directing us to the science behind those predictions. Thx!
Pieter, you are on the right track here at TNGM. First just turn the scroll wheel and read,when you see blue writing click on it,when you get to the bottom of the page click on older posts ad continuom.
So scientists who study this have no worthwhile opinion, but an inanimate science is capable of makeing a prediction – is that right?
The NOAA and NASA have NOT made accurate predictions of solar activity, including the most recent predictions of the cycle we are exiting, 24.
However, Dr. Kitiashvili and Dr. Zharkova have made very accurate predictions of the current cycle 24, and predict cycle 25 to be weaker than 24.
The NOAA/NASA forecast for cycle 25 is that it will be similar to 24. Even if that were the case, it would be a Grand Minimum. But since both have a record of innacurate solar activity predictions, why would anyone accept their predictions?
See link below for NOAA/NASA own acceptance of inaccuracy.
Agree NOAA/NASA has an accuracy problem, some times they let politics influence their science reports. See the latest video of Dr. Zharkova posted above for her forecast of the next Grand Minimum during Cycle 26, which has more credibility than NOAA/NASA’s.
NOAA is run by an AGW denying Trump appointee – I see what you mean.
This is just a copy of the previous declarations.
It doesn’t say anything new.
The NOAA seems to grope in the dark.
Let’s not confuse wishful thinking with prediction…