Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast

[Solar Cycle 25 peak lower than Solar Cycle 24]

Irina N. Kitiashvili. (Submitted on 2 Oct 2019)

Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components derived from synoptic magnetograms are assimilated, using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, into a mean-field dynamo model based on Parker’s migratory dynamo theory complemented by magnetic helicity conservation. It was found that the predicted toroidal field is in good agreement with observations for almost the entire following solar cycle. However, poloidal field predictions agree with observations only for the first 2 – 3 years of the predicted cycle. The results indicate that the upcoming Solar Maximum of Cycle 25 (SC25) is expected to be weaker than the current Cycle 24. The model results show that a deep extended solar activity minimum is expected during 2019 – 2021, and that the next solar maximum will occur in 2024 – 2025. The sunspot number at the maximum will be about 50 with an error estimate of 15 – 30 %. The maximum will likely have a double peak or show extended periods (for 2 – 2.5 years) of high activity. According to the hemispheric prediction results, SC25 will start in 2020 in the Southern hemisphere, and will have a maximum in 2024 with a sunspot number of about 28. In the Northern hemisphere the cycle will be delayed for about 1 year (with an error of ±0.5 year), and reach a maximum in 2025 with a sunspot number of about 23.

[Emphasis added]



6 thoughts on “Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast

  1. Gabriel October 4, 2019 / 11:33 pm

    Shall this forecast may turn reality then SC25 will be weaker than most models predicted and the fall into a grand minimum not only will be unevitable but more abrupt than expected. Zharkova’s model will be confirmed either. SC26 will be the beginning of a period where temperatures will decline possibly as much as a Maunder-like period.

    • Russ Steele October 5, 2019 / 1:18 pm

      I wonder when more journalists will start to pay attention. The public is going to be blindsided. We moved to a warmer climate but decided to keep our warm coats in the closet, in case they are needed.

      • Gabriel October 6, 2019 / 12:22 am

        My guess is that most of the press will keep the same narrative from the AGW as part of this ongoing ‘second cold war’ which is not played necessarily by countries but inside the countries. Nevertheless the facts will keep happening but most of the population will be blinded to them. For instance the fact described at the following link which was just barely reported by the MSM.

        Even if the Thames freezes this winter, the narrative will follow Al Gore’s statements that ‘this is exactly what we would expect on a climate crisis’ and most of the global poorly educated population would rather believe in Gretas and Algores… And we can easily find pictures in the web showing people covered by snow protesting against the AGW and ‘climate changes’ though they cannot really assess what this really means…

        Never forget most of humans understand very little to nothing about Physics, Meteorology, Geology, Mathematics which are basic knowledge to the understanding of solar and climate phenomena.

        But maybe it will change if we’d be entering another glaciation period… when the ice cover reaches latitude 25° they would start to consider this thing would not be related to ‘warming’ after all…

      • Russ Steele October 6, 2019 / 8:32 am

        I just finished reading Ice Ages. This book tells the exciting story of the ice ages―what they were like, why they occurred, and when the next one is due. The solution to the ice age mystery originated when the National Science Foundation organized the CLIMAP project to study changes in the earth’s climate over the past 700,000 years. One of the goals was to produce a map of the earth during the last ice age. Scientists examined cores of sediment from the Indian Ocean bed and deciphered a continuous history for the past 500,000 years. Their work ultimately confirmed the theory that the earth’s irregular orbital motions account for the bizarre climatic changes which bring on ice ages. [From Amazon ]. Told like a good detective story!

  2. Gabriel October 6, 2019 / 2:47 am

    I’m sure you all have heard of the headlines news from CNN for this extra 1,500 deaths linked to the warm heat in France:

    But the 5,000 additional deaths of the spring of 2013 in UK were just a matter of ‘internal affairs’:–experts-say-final-toll-horrendous.html

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