Monster Solar Minimum Approaching


Solar Acrivity in 100 Years

Guest essay by David Archibald at Watts Up With That

This recent post was on the fact that the Sun’s EUV emissions had fallen to solar minimum-like levels well ahead of solar minimum. The implication was that the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was either going to be very deep and prolonged, or that Solar Cycle 24 would be very short, which in turn would be strange for a weak cycle.

David provides extensive graphics to make his points at the link. He also included a model developed by a retired B52 Pilot Ed Fix that predicts minimum in 2017.

Historic sun spots record is in green, the model plot is in red.


Figure 6: Ed Fix’s solar activity model

The model has the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2017. Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to be weak and short also. If events of the next year or so prove Ed Fix’s model to be correct, then it will be as significant as the results of any of the expeditions to observe solar phenomena over the last three centuries, but we get to watch in real time.

2017 will be an interesting solar year, tracking the validity of Ed Fix’s model.   Are we going to reach minimum by the end of 2017?  Your thoughts?

6 thoughts on “Monster Solar Minimum Approaching

  1. Gordon Rutherford July 11, 2017 / 1:26 pm

    Not exactly, not as long as the MAunder minimum, notice the drivers for the Modern Grand Solar Minimum hit twice, as they usually do, just depends on the Magnetic Polarity of the drivers at the time. (1970 and 2009/10) – these are the two dates that have came and went, and the trademarks of Grand Solar Minimums are Major Earthquakes, Eruptions, Extreme Weather, and 10+ year droughts. We started the Current Grand Solar Minimum in 2009/10

  2. Gordon Rutherford July 11, 2017 / 1:28 pm

    FYI: and this Modern Grand Solar Minimum will be around till at least 2054, when the Jovians redistribute, and according to my calculations we have a possible year without summer, will just depend on eruptions before 2021, and two 10+ year Regional droughts around 2027-2032 and 2047-2052…

  3. Gordon Rutherford July 11, 2017 / 1:30 pm

    Interesting that this year, Chicago had 3 dates in Feb with 70+ degrees temperatures, and the last time this occured was during the Great American Dust Bowl in 1934, and that before the Dust Bowl hit, there was a 10 year drought in California, notice we just ended a 10 year drought in California

  4. George Rebane July 11, 2017 / 5:56 pm

    Where can we see a piece that describes Ed Fix’s model? Without that background it’s hard to maintain interest, because it looks like just another model that has been backfit to data, and then extrapolated forward. gjr

  5. Sam Walker August 11, 2017 / 4:37 pm

    What is left out on sooooo many of these predictions is the other solar cycles and how they impact the 11 year cycle. There is the 90 +/- 10 year cycle and the approx average 206 year cycle. These cycles, especially to 200 year one seem to not only affect the average amplitude, but the duration of the cycles and cause the 11 year cycle to stretch or shorten.

  6. The Star Man September 19, 2017 / 5:46 am

    Hello, with regards to solar minimum in 2017, this will not happen if you look at historical data minimums very rarely occur earlier than 6/7 years after Maximum, cycle 24 peaked in April 2014 so this would mean minimum in 2020/2021. Also there is sufficient evidence to support global cooling since 1998, we are at a very low sun spot count throughout cycle 24 but as of September minimum is nowhere in sight, september seen some of the biggest X-Ray flares in a decade providing 3/4 X-Class Flares. if we look back at other cooling periods we can see that Earth is overdue a cooling period, Roman 0AD, Medieval 1000AD and current 1999 AD this will last approximately 160 years well into the mid 2100’s.

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