Mike Jonas writing as Guest Blogger at Watt Up With That has written an very interesting essay on the potential impact of the sun on our climate and climate history. Recommend reading for Next Grand Minimum readers, as there is a mention of the Maunder Minimum.
I would also direct your attention to the comments, which contain some interesting discussion.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/10/indirect-effects-of-the-sun-of-earths-climate/
There is an aspect of the indirect effects that seems to be somewhat less than fully appreciated.
The tendency is to assume that ‘The Atmosphere’ is a relatively fixed mass, it warms, it cools, its constituent parts vary but otherwise it doesn’t do much. This can be somewhat misleading. In fact it
is a very fluid medium, it expands, it contracts – as evidenced by LEO satellite behaviour – pressure varies and surges and it has ‘tidal’ flows in response to these surges.
As a result, a relatively small input of solar energy, from for example CMEs, can cause a degree of upper level expansion, causing problems for the LEO satellites, and also causing mid level pressure surging and the ‘tidal ‘flows mentioned. This, especially if prolonged, can delay or exacerbate natural seasonal movement of the overall structure, delaying a seasonal change in one area prolonging the conditions active there , increasing the movement in another to exaggerate the normal surface conditions in that area. This may be visualised much in the way that the rise and fall of ocean tides cause dramatic flow effects at the coast.
For this reason, measuring solar input (TSI) and expecting it to relate directly to surface conditions can mislead. It is far more fluid than that.
Interesting, I never thought of the atmosphere that way.
May be at risk of putting two and two together and making six, however, much has been said about the mesospheric ‘Heat Wave’ of early June this year. Checking through the records we find that immediately preceding this event, on 28th May, we recorded a sudden, strong, G3 storm originating from a CME. This gave a sharp spike in the Ap record (Carrington Rotation CR2191). Was this short sharp impact enough to cause an upper atmospheric ‘Tidal Surge’ giving rise to the mesospheric phenomenon observed?