Global cooling will follow El Nino – more risk on the downside

By Joseph D’Aleo, CC

El Ninos always produce a global pop in temperatures. So expect that this next 6 months or so even in the only accurate data, from satellites. Strong El Ninos usually are followed by a pendulum like strong La Nina with a cooling. Major volcanoes can override or diminish any warming as El Chicon and Mt. St. Helens did in the early to mid 1980s and Pinatubo/Cerro Hudson did in the early to mid 1990s.

That said, there are many active volcanos around the world and many more unrestful which could erupt. There seems to be more active volcanos when the sun is quiet, but I cannot find any specific studies. Here is a link to a list of active and unrestful volcanos:

Joe D’Aleo quotes Russian and Australian scientist supporting the view that we are in for some prolonged cooling following the El Niño, you can read rest on his blog post HERE.

Some updated graphics to support the comment discussion (07-17-15):

Russian projections:


Livingston and Penn sunspot study:
Figure#2 2017_Projection

La Nina and El Nino history showing that cool periods rapidly follow warm periods. make_enso_plot_v2


About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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26 Responses to Global cooling will follow El Nino – more risk on the downside

  1. gjrebane says:

    Russ, is there a time window connected to when we should begin to record the lower temps?

  2. Russ Steele says:


    According to the Russian scientists we are on the cusp of the cooling and we will be well into it by 2020, see the updated Russian graphic. This is consistent with the Livingston and Penn research that predicted no sunspots by 2017-2020. See the Livingston and Penn graphic in the update.

    As you can see from the update El Niño update graphic almost every major El Niño has been followed rapidly by a deep La Niña with in two years.

    If the El Niño is from 2015-2016, unless we have a two years El Niño then it would be 2015-2017, with a possible deep La Niña in 2017-2018 or 2018-2019, and by then the sunspots are projected to vanish and the planet on the cusp of a little ice age.

    Couple this with a cool Pacific PDO and cool Atlantic AMO which is emerging, in the past this combination has produced some cold Eastern US and European winters. These cool phases are forecast to last 20-30 years. Add in the lack of sunspots starting in 2017, for 20-30 years, and things could get rather ugly. During the last little ice age, millions starved. However, we are in a better position to adapt this time, the question is will our political leaders be able to pivot from solving global warming to saving millions from starving due to the much shortened growing seasons. Spring will come later for farmers delaying planting and fall will come earlier with damaging winds, rain and snow. Life is going to become more difficult for farmers over the next 20-30 years.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Unfortunately driving farmers off the land has been a US government goal since the 1940s. For the history see:

      Life for farmers became even more difficult with the passage of the Food Safety Modernization Act. Now the FDA/USDA will closely regulate farming adding $$$ to the cost, fear of million dollar fines and bankrupting many independent farmers. (This all comes out of the World Trade Organization and is world wide) In the UK, the Warmwell site ~10 years ago reported a UK dairy farmer saying he now spends 60% of his time filling out paperwork and that all of his neighbors have quit as a result. We will be seeing this happen in the USA too. As more incidents like the $4.1 million fine for the Dollarites happen.

      Also the average age of a farmer is climbing. The Average ten years ago was in the mid to late fifties now it is over 58 years. None of the young guys want to farm.

      Back when Al Gore was vice president he was handing out prizes to FFA (Future farmers of America) He asked the winner what he planned to do and the boy said farm. Al Gore advised him to pick another career because the USA was phasing out farming. (We grow ~15% of the world’s grain) My extension agent was at the presentation and was spitting mad about it when he came back. Here is a link, see half way down on left margin:


      The greenies have declared war on meat eating and the US government with their newest dietary guidelines has followed suit. The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC), came up with the recommendation that “America Should Adopt a ‘Plant-Based’ Diet”. It recommends taxes on dessert, trained obesity “interventionists” at schools and worksites, and electronic monitoring of how long Americans sit in front of the television or computer. William M. Briggs reports on the first part of this grand transformation here:
      I go indepth HERE:

      So why do I think the war on livestock is crazy?
      1. Because not all land is suitable for crops. Hilly land, rocky land and land that has been worn out is much more suited to livestock/hay.

      2. Silage — If the weather turns iffy converting you unripened grain into silage is a really good idea.

      “Corn did not become an important crop in Minnesota until farmers had learned to harvest it for silage. They could cut the entire plant while the kernels were green, chop it into pieces no larger than a person’s little finger, and blow it into towering cylindrical silos where they stored it for winter feed.” — Landscapes of Minnesota: A Geography
      By John Fraser Hart, Susy S. Ziegler

      3. There are winter crops and grasses that are not affected by intermittent snow cover and can provide forage in spring and fall. One person I know in Virgina ‘Stockpiles’ fescue grass for the winter and never provides hay for her horses. They eat pasture all year round even when it is snow covered.

      Also of interest is China bought Smithfield Food and a lot of other farms. “That purchase included enough farmland to bring the value of Chinese-owned U.S. farmland to $1.4 billion” [5,000 sq miles or 3 million ac @ 5,000/ac] China ” now owns 1 in 4 pigs raised in the U.S. Why has China positioned itself to own a significant chunk of food production in the U.S.?” —-

      Before that Brazil’s JBS (José Batista) bought Swift, Pilgrim’s Pride, Five Rivers Cattle Feeding LLC and also U.S.-based National Beef Packing making it the world’s larges meat packers.

      I wonder just how much of America’s farmland is still in the hands of individual American farmers and not international corporations (or under contract to those corporations)?

  3. gjrebane says:

    Good quantitative answer Russ. We should get some pretty strong verification within the next 5 years. Hopefully the politicos will not do too much damage between now and then. Thanks Russ.

    • girebane, people like you are doing all the damages; promoting phony ”global” warmings and coolings – when the ”overall temp” is always the same – the planet is a big place! never goes warmer the whole planet OR colder the whole planet! Same as the see-saw plank, never both sides go up, or down simultaneously! The Warmist are wining, and the politicians and media are helping them – because the ”skeptics” are stewing in the old pagan beliefs…

      In the 70’s were emphasizing places where is colder than normal, and were ignoring where was warmer than normal – now they are doing the opposite, but same tactic that was used by the ”original carbon molester” Hubert Lamb; he was promoting ice age because of co2 dimming effect / now is same only they went for ”greenhouse effect” here:

      • Andrew S says:

        Stefan, with all due respect I think you are wrong. How do you explain the snowball earth ‘Sturtian Glaciation’ of the remote geological past, and then reconcile that with the hottest periods of Earth’s history when there was no glaciation to speak of, and no polar ice caps? The only way any rational person can explain those extremes is that the overall averaged temperature of Earth was colder, in the case of Snowball Earth, and much warmer averaged OVERALL than today during thermal maximums. It is simply not possible that those two extremes, if globally averaged separately from each other, would come up with the same global averaged temperature. That’s not going to happen.

        Also, I saw on your very wordy site(you should really try to be more concise, you might get more comments), that you make the erroneous claim that ‘CO2 absorbs cold’ and that’s ‘why it is used to make dry ice.’ Gases or any material for that matter cannot ‘absorb cold’, but they can be heated and, lose heat through radiative emission. Gases require chilling and pressurizing in order to change state from a gas to a solid or liquid.
        CO2 = frozen Carbon Dioxide (Dry Ice) : approx. -109°F
        Liquid N2 = Liquid Nitrogen : approx. -320°F
        I think you need to brush up on your understanding of thermodynamics.

      • Hello Andrew, I proved in details that ”ice free polar caps” is crap – because of many other details – Warmist are panicking on their blogs from that my post – you should read every sentence of it and get on the front foot and give insomnia to the Warmist! B] in the comments,there an extreme Warmist geologist; gave me a link / proof where a Harvard researcher proved ”snowball earth” existed, is in National Geographic – I gave him two answers to that ”proof” and proved that they are both completely wrong; his name is Harry, they don’t make more extreme Warmist. Please read his link AND my two replays to him, As you can appreciate – I can’t in one comment here disprove what you stated that I’m wrong. Please read that post, for your benefit, here it’s::

        #2: Andrew, I cannot be wrong about CO2, OR anything else; because in my life I loved to be corrected! plus, physics and chemistry is my turf:: liquid CO2 doesn’t exist in nature on the earth, because needs high pressure BUT:”dry ice” is made only on Antarctic; apart of chilling it BUT: CO2 crystallizes on ANY pressure; I believe that: most of ”shooting stars” are balls of ”dry ice” – which means: dry ice can be made even in ”complete vacuum”, out in space!!! B] Andrew; you are a perfect volunteer, to ”peer review” my other post, after you read the first link; here is why:

        Warmist constantly brag about having ”Peer reviewed papers” (I call them ”Pal reviewed”

        BUT: you would be tough on me – to pick on any legitimate mistake – and I can rub the Warmist noses that: I have ”peer reviewed post” On that second post, about Venus – you’ll see lots of talk about dry ice and liquid CO2.
        See Andrew; I get full frontal attack on the Warmist, with complicated issues – because I don’t relay on ”airport heat, vineyards in England, LIA, Vikings on Greenland”; those things are being repeated 7 trillion times and will not surprise and shock the Warmist – need to change tactic – they are ONLY scared from the 98% of the public that are secular Skeptics &Warmist believers –
        the few thousand fundamentalist on the net, from half a billion English speaking people doesn’t bother them – so: on that first link so far 1350 visitors, most Warmist – if they don’t make comment, even better – I relay: when they say home to the seculars: ”there is a bastard on the net, who has proved that: in 100y from now will not be enough extra heat accumulated on the whole planet, as much as one Al Gore’s fart” THE secular skeptics & believers will spread word of mouth, and we’ll win. Andrew, go and read those two posts, please

      • Andrew, just spotted your comment: you asking me ”to explain past global warmings / coolings” is same as asking me ”why and how the sun is orbiting around the earth” Andrew, established ”beliefs” are wrong, but, here: -”in the past the polar caps were on many different places – so: when they found warmer than now to some place -> was declared as ”warmer the whole planet” or cloder. They didn’t know that ”overall” global temp self adjust itself and they accumulated lots of crap for uni books.

        #2: technically gas loses heat / gains heat, BUT: also technically san say that gas gets or loses coldness= technically you are splitting hair!

        When you have being on my blog, should read every sentence in the post, instead of running away after two sentences and keeping to wrong conclusion!!!!by reading few sentences, you’ll never know if the butler did it and why!! IF you want CORRECT answer on your questions, on my blog, please read every sentence on this post, and ask for more, for every proof:

  4. Anthony j. Mengotto says:

    Russ, Something to note, we did not reach back up to the kind of temperatures the earth had when the Vikings were living in Green Land back in the 1000 AD – 1400 AD time before the little ice age happened. Therefore cooling maybe more on a downward spiral quickly this time around. My worst case scenario is we could be back into Dalton Minimum temperatures by the end of solar cycle 24 and, if solar cycle 25 is weaker than 24 it may turn out that cooling will be at the Maunder Minimum levels as far as the temperatures around the planet. I hope I’m wrong about this, but it can happen if you do the math.

    • Anthony, what kind of maths you are talking about?! What kind of thermometers did you use for your Dalton Minimum and the rest? Those fairy-tales were collected by the geologist not good enough, to get themselves job in the mining industry…

      ‘Little Ice Age” was concocted by an American Warmist professor; from a photo showing people scatting on river Thames, because a freak weather frizzed the river for few days; then Plimer adopted it in his book,for the skeptics (same as for Vikings on Greenland – they didn’t say that: at SAME TIME Vikings were in Sicily for 100y – their “globe was cooler”, reason they were on Mediterranean climate…?!.
      Only 3y ago Danube was frozen -1000miles closer to the equator than Thames / 10 times larger river AND 100000000 of photos were made – why you ”anything believers” didn’t declare it as ”Midi Ice Age” for 600 years?!

      • Anthony j. Mengotto says:

        stefanthedenier, You need to make yourself aware of weather history before you jump to conclusions. Here is weather history titled A Meteorological account of the weather in Philadelphia from January 1790 – 1847 when we were in the Dolton Minimum period.

      • Russ Steele says:


        You need to do a little more research on climate history. I recommend the The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow by B. Lynn Ingram and Frances Malamud-Roam. From Amazon Review:
        The West without Water documents the tumultuous climate of the American West over twenty millennia, with tales of past droughts and deluges and predictions about the impacts of future climate change on water resources. Looking at the region’s current water crisis from the perspective of its climate history, the authors ask the central question of what is “normal” climate for the West, and whether the relatively benign climate of the past century will continue into the future.

        The West without Water merges climate and paleoclimate research from a wide variety of sources as it introduces readers to key discoveries in cracking the secrets of the region’s climatic past. It demonstrates that extended droughts and catastrophic floods have plagued the West with regularity over the past two millennia and recounts the most disastrous flood in the history of California and the West, which occurred in 1861–62. The authors show that, while the West may have temporarily buffered itself from such harsh climatic swings by creating artificial environments and human landscapes, our modern civilization may be ill-prepared for the future climate changes that are predicted to beset the region. They warn that it is time to face the realities of the past and prepare for a future in which fresh water may be less reliable.
        One can conclude we are living in an unusual time in climate history, a warm moist period, when the long term average is much cooler and dryer.

      • jeremyp99 says:

        Dear me. I suggest you read Brian Fagan’s “The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850”.

  5. Russ, now you hit the nail on the head! I have being researching how to improve Australian climate, very easy, In tropics monsoonal area – rains a lot for 2 months and after most rivers dry.- saving stormwater improves the climate, attracts clouds from the sea AND brings them lower, to drop the rain = clouds avoid dry land!; unfortunately on the driest continent has being made illegal new dams for last 30y, by a green senator…

    In US you have different reasons, but similar problems: high evaporation in the gulf- Texas was rainforest and was sending moisture west. Opening Gibraltar 10000y ago and french Chanel made water as soon as warmed – goes east by the gulf stream – as on conveyor belt / no time to produce WV there.; opening Bosporus speed it up. collapse of Texas vegetation, swamps -> no moisture going west-> created Nevada, Dakota, Arizona semi-deserts-> ”that dry heat” is going in every direction and kills the vegetation and moisture in most of US (your shonky experts are blaming Maya people for irrigating, destroyed vegetation and sunspots; how sick!) Irrigation improves climate- if they didn’t irrigate, wouldn’t have put one brick, to close Gibraltar!

    3] if ”brown water’ from Los Angeles and Francisco, if possible;to be piped into Californian desert-> would kill some of created dry heat -> rain and snow would have increased on Rocky mountains-> more water in Colorado, Sacramento rivers = improving climate!. BUT:
    Nobody is talking about ”improving climate” now, because everybody blames CO2&Sunspots…
    SAME as when people didn’t know about bacteria – they were burning witches, to prevent sicknesses (I don’t know if you waste lots of storm-water without dams / Australia, smallest continent, surrounded by the biggest mas of water on the planet, is the driest continent – because the shonks climatologist and similar, are the biggest white color criminals; everybody censors or silences the truth from me; because both camps are into fundamentalism…! Q: Russ, is the climate perfect now?! Q: Why everybody is a ”Climate from Changing Stopper?! WHAT WE NEED?! WE NEED CLIMATE CHANGE! WHEN DO WE NEED IT?! NOW!!!

    • Wayne Job says:

      Stefan, A large part of the centre of Australia is 32 ft below sea level, it has been my dream for fifty years that a channel be dug from the gulf country. That would create an inland sea, the gulf has 20ft tides, you would be able to surf the tidal waves all the way to the centre. That inland sea would green a huge amount of Australia. Wayne.

    • Wayne job, hallelujah;
      you understand ”the concept” that water changes climate, not co2! You deserve 8 virgin secretaries!!! Would be a bit too much; to let salty water inland, BUT: Fitzroy river in Kimberleys to turn south into Great Sandy Desert,-to destroy dry heat created there, that is destroying even to Borneo and most inland Australia #2:] Burdekin river to turn it inland, can be done easy – to fill up lake Eyre = CLIMATE WOULD HAVE IMPROVED BEYOND RECOGNITION!!! Unfortunately the Carbon molesters” and the Pagan believers” don’t know about the ”real climate” outside the window… for that lot the climate comes on the monitor…
      Wayne; as long as you keep the knowledge that ”water regulates climate” – you cannot become a ”collateral damage” = your truth will win on the end – because the truth always wins!!! Warmist and ”climate skeptics” ignore inland australian climate = reason they are ”climate from changing stoppers” Wayne; some people just cannot get hipnotized, you are one of those! keep up the great work!!!

  6. jeremyp99 says: ”Dear me. I suggest you read Brian Fagan’s “The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850″.

    Hi jeremy, when swindlers write something – they exaggerate, to sell his book. IF he said: freak weather extremes happened, same as today; but most of the year was normal weather /on most of the places / the planet is a big place -> people don’t buy the book;, because the truth is boring! If that Fagan is telling you that: he knows the exact dally temp for 1350 in Australia, Africa, America, Antarctic and all the water in between; before Colombo and Cook discovered them – he is telling you that: he is a entertainer / swindler/ liar. They are the precursor of today’s evil and robberies, by using CO2… SAME swindlers are exaggerating about today’s temp on desolated places, your Fagan had easier job lying; because he was lying about the distant past! On my first comment above is a link, will tell you why the Warmist are winning – because of the past voo-doo science that ”skeptics” use. please read that post, broaden your knowledge.

  7. Russ Steele says: ”Stefan, You need to do a little more research on climate history”

    Russ, I did my homework and their voo-doo science in details, also I know the truth. From the truth: Sahara created deserts in US, now those deserts fight to expand – also are getting extra help, from ”expending” Sahara, for two reasons: #!: as the planet spins eastwards -> dry heat from Sahara goes into Atlantic and is constantly destroying the water vapor, that WV belongs to US and Arctic, but is destroyed! #2: because of Sahara’s dry heat, very high evaporation in Mediterranean – river Nile is to a trickle, Danube produces some years water in February, when snow melts in Europe BUT: when highest evaporation, ALL the water deficit is stolen warm surface water from your gulf. US climate is doomed, will get much worse, because of the voo-doo science, as ”blaming CO2”
    They want to pipe oil from Alaska and Canada to Texas beaches BUT: if they pipe half of the water from Mississippi river west into the semi-deserts, can reverse and improve the climate in most of US!!! Killing the dry heat created in those deserts -> will attract regular clouds inland = water makes water, as money in the bank. Blaming CO2, sunspots, witches; – you must sacrifice three virgins every year – if you are lucky to find one, in the whole of US… good luck!

  8. Russ Steele says:


    I suggest that you read

    Anasazi America: Seventeen Centuries on the Road from Center Place, by David E. Stuart a professor at the University of New Mexico. The author looks a life in the desert south west and the impact of climate change, long before we CO2 was an issue.

    I also suggest that you read The West With Out Water.

    The West without Water documents the tumultuous climate of the American West over twenty millennia, with tales of past droughts and deluges and predictions about the impacts of future climate change on water resources. Looking at the region’s current water crisis from the perspective of its climate history, the authors ask the central question of what is “normal” climate for the West, and whether the relatively benign climate of the past century will continue into the future.

    Again, another academic look at the impact of climate change in the south western US, including California. You will become to appreciate the climate cycles experienced by the region and the impact on the people living there. The earth experiences long term climate cycles, that humans have little control over.

  9. While humans argue over whether the planet is warming or cooling, our bodies, food, water, and air are under extreme assault.

    Judge Anna von Reitz, Alaska State Superior Court Judge, and legal adviser to former Pope Benedict XVI Joseph Ratzinger, and now Pope Francis Jorge Mario Bergoglio, agreed to ensure that both Ratziner and Bergoglio receive and read the Open Letter to Pope Francis from concerned citizens ‘before’ he speaks at the UN Sustainable Development Summit Sept 25-27, 2015

  10. Hi Russ; I’ve read few similar books, I’m not talking from the top of my head. Floods and droughts are natural phenomena – Gondwanaland was the biggest desert ever – because was a big landmass and most parts far from the sea. Has being going up and down since, for many reasons.

    Studying alluvial deposits can give ruff idea, BUT: because they all had a wrong starting point and presumption, that global temp goes up and down = they are all wrong! Is never summer on the ”whole” planet, or winter – it goes as kids ”see-saw plank” – the hotter one place goes, simultaneously colder other places go; it’s laws of physics! Whatever those laws don’t approve – it was MANY different reasons for those things happening!

    You know US topography, I don’t, BUT: giving you examples/ real reasons – example Colorado canyon: it shows bigger gravel deposits at some time, other times only fine dirt; and ”repeats many times” / CYCLES, BUT: that only tells about the rainfall on the hills upstream, not even for state of Colorado! Definitely not about Africa, Australia or Russia and all the water in-between! Declaring localized events as ”global” is the precursor of all confusions and rip-off!

    Example: lots of gravel deposits was interpreted as: was lots of rain -> must have being warmer planet for more evaporation, on the whole planet, BULL! truth: some submarine volcanoes of California were more active -> produced in the area more rain, OR snow (both are made from WV) BUT: to make it more sick, now ”more snow” is interpreted as ”colder the whole planet” – so: if that extra WV has fallen as rain= warmer, BUT: how did your experts know if the flood was from rain, OR from melting too much snow upstream?! (the truth is irritating and irrelevant for conmen)

    Footnote: if the truth is recognized; that H2O regulates climate, not CO2 – many things can be done, to improve the climate, on many places on the planet! Otherwise: the person inventing how to make fire by rubbing two sticks 50 000y ago, decided to turn most of US into desert -> made Sahara into desert -> that drained / evaporated Mediterranean system- that water evaporated from Mediterranean, Caspian, Aral, Aegean, Adriatic, Black sea, made sea-level to rise, and made Gibraltar to overflow and cut the straights- that created the ”gulf stream” (instead, the clowns say that: sea-level was up, because of ice melted on Greenland) northern half the temp is -70C (94F) IF that happened on Greenland: where you are, the temp would have being 10F ABOVE WATER BOILING POINT!!!: ::

  11. Gail Combs says:

    …There seems to be more active volcanos when the sun is quiet, but I cannot find any specific studies…..

    Here from Casey:

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