New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

Watts Up With That?

sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick:  A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.

Highlights

► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

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About Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.
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4 Responses to New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

  1. Anthony j. Mengotto says:

    Russ, Very good article, but keep in mind for every 1 year longer than the average on the solar cycle length, there is a 0.7c degree drop in temperatures. Remember cycle 24 started in 1/2009. This would mean we are at 5.5 years in to the cycle now. Right at the halve way point of the 11 year average. If solar maximum lasts to the end of this year, then we will be looking at a 12 year solar cycle. And if it goes in to next year, the cycle will be even longer. This is going to be an interesting 6 months, or longer to find out, but it will be worth the wait. Anthony

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