The sun hasn’t decided what it wants to do yet.

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Another new solar sunspot record peak of 73.2 was set for Cycle 24 last month. It smashed the old 68.9 record peak set the previous month.

In a big surprise, it’s over six spots higher than the first sunspot peak set in early 2012 and will probably go up. A secondary peak that much above the first is almost unheard of.

The new sunspot peak is unusual for two conflicting reasons:

  1. The secondary peak is higher than the first
  2. Current physics suggests the solar cycle should be weakening

Conflicting signals coming from the sun muddles how it might affect earth’s future climate. A more active sun will have a warming effect. A less active sun, predicted by most solar physicists, will have a cooling effect.

The full article is HERE, however this maybe of most interest to readers of this blog:

Is the next Maunder Minimum at hand?

Three key pieces of evidence from a 2011 solar physics meeting suggest the sun is slipping into another prolonged period of solar inactivity:

  1. The solar jet stream for Cycle 25 is delayed
  2. Solar magnetic field strength is weakening
  3. Weakening of the poleward surge in coronal magnetism

Put all together, these three diverse results convinced most solar physicists in 2011 that Cycle 25 may be the weakest since the Maunder Minimum of the 1600s.

The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is already the weakest in 100 years even with the resurgence of sunspot activity over the last six months.

The first official prediction for the peak of Cycle 25 is only seven spots!

Conclusions

The sun is sending mixed signals. Until six months ago all major measurements suggested the sun’s 11-year solar cycle was about to take a siesta for at least one cycle, maybe more.

The sun hasn’t been reading the scientific literature. Since last October it developed one of the highest secondary peaks compared to its first ever measured, if not the highest.

The secondary peak will probably go up again next month. No solar physicist saw it coming.

Are sunspots fading away, or coming back? At this point, nobody knows for sure what is going on or how it will affect climate change.

Thanks to Inform the Pundits for this article.

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Author: Russ Steele

Freelance writer and climate change blogger. Russ spent twenty years in the Air Force as a navigator specializing in electronics warfare and digital systems. After his service he was employed for sixteen years as concept developer for TRW, an aerospace and automotive company, and then was CEO of a non-profit Internet provider for 18 months. Russ's articles have appeared in Comstock's Business, Capitol Journal, Trailer Life, Monitoring Times, and Idaho Magazine.

18 thoughts on “The sun hasn’t decided what it wants to do yet.”

      1. HI RUSS,
        CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT THIS ALL WILL MEAN FOR THE WEATHER IN EUROPA,
        THE NEDERLANDS,THERE IS NOBODY TAKING ABOUT THAT.
        THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR POSTS

      2. Cilissen,

        I recommend that you read Brian Fagan’s book on the Little Ice Age : The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850 [Kindle Edition] Then watch for similar trends and in our current weather patterns. However, one has to remember that it took a whole generation for the Little Ice Age to be come very apparent to the general population, it came in fits and starts, some good crop year and then a series of bad crop years, and soon there were more bad years, than good years. The LIA had arrived.

  1. ”A less active sun, predicted by most solar physicists, will have a cooling effect”

    that ”prediction” is made by the Warmist, as a backdoor exit; to justify for the planet not warming. It’s as indirect admission that even the hardcore Warmist realize that warming will not happen.

    b] saying that: ”the sun is active” but when the ”Skeptics see that warming is NOT happening – will they admit that sun activity doesn’t increase the temp on the planet?!.

    2] the truth: when is extra radiation from the sun on the earth -> that increases more heat BUT doesn’t get warmer; because: as soon as it gets warmer -> oxygen & nitrogen expand INSTANTLY and release extra heat from the troposphere into the stratosphere = problem solved. O2&N2 expanding / shrinking are regulating the ”OVERALL” heat on the planet to be always the same.

    using isolated places as examples, is a mistake; should be always taken ”overall” temp on the WHOLE planet. for example: if England Gets warmer by 2C, and simultaneously Pacific gets cooler by 0,1C – the overall temp is still the same; because pacific is many times larger than England

    if the sun activity is increasing, why is not getting warmer planet, why brothers, why? sunlight from the sun reaches the earth in 8minutes, no delay, why is not getting warmer planet for the last two months, why?

    1. ”A less active sun, predicted by most solar physicists, will have a cooling effect”
      It’s physics. It has nothing to do with “warmist predictions” or backdoor anything.

      The amount of heat from the sun, called TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) by solar physicists, varies with the solar cycle. It goes up when there are more sunspots and goes down when there are fewer.

      The amount of variation, though, hasn’t been large enough and hasn’t lasted long enough since 1880 to have had any measurable impact on Earth’s climate one way or another.

      1. Azleader,

        What do you attribute the Little Ice Age cooling to, if not the lack of sun spots during the Maunder Minimum? What was the cause in your mind?

  2. Azleader said: ‘’The amount of variation, though, hasn’t been large enough and hasn’t lasted long enough since 1880 to have had any measurable impact on Earth’s climate’’

    Hi azleader, that’s when is not taken in consideration ‘’the self adjusting mechanism that the earth has!’’ The temp on the planet is as: when you are filling a FULL bucket of water -> the rest overflows and doesn’t stay in the bucket. I know the shonky theories that you know, but hear the truth:
    1] if it gets warmer for any reason-> air expands INSTANTLY and releases extra heat and equalizes in a jiffy / if it gets colder -> troposphere shrinks INSTANTLY, and saves more heat = the overall temp stays always the same.

    2] for the first time was discovered that the sun has sunspots, was in 2005, that’s 9y ago! Special filters were invented by the Japanese, to put on the telescope and with computer manipulation the sunspots are visible.

    3] for ‘’sun flares’’ was known for over 100years – just block the sun with a cardboard and look at the sun’s corona. Unfortunately, because sunlight comes to the earth in 8 minutes – those sun flares affect where the earth was, or will be in 3months…

    4] sunspots CANNOT be seen from the earth, because the water molecules and other particles in the atmosphere are dispersing the sunlight as chandeliers – must be observed from a satellite.
    5] the ‘’pretend Skeptics’’ in the sceptic’s camp pinned against the ‘’phony sceptic’s chart ‘’ and made a chart for ‘’sunspots’’ for the last 1000years, to make it as ‘’double proof’’… To make it ‘’typical sceptic’s chart’’ they inserted that: ‘’the Chinese were monitoring sunspots 6000 years ago’’ ( must have being lots of blinded Chinese…)

    6] if you don’t believe me, take a binocular and count the sunspots tomorrow from your backyard – the magnifying sunlight through the binoculars will burn a hole from your eye socket to the back of your head, in few minutes. I don’t believe that; in 1880 there were so stupid people to look direct at the sun and collect data for today’s ‘’Skeptics’’ what do you think? When the Warmist hear with what kind of a crap the ‘’skeptics’’ are coming up with – the Warmist are rolling on the carpet from laughter, and laughing all the way to the bank. The truth: nobody knows what was the planet’s temp last year – the ‘’Skeptics’’ have a chart; with a hundredth of a degree precision, for the last 10 000years…? *(against ‘’that chart’’ was pinned, to make the sunspot’s chart…) you can see why the Skeptics are born losers… I hope that I was of some assistance – here is why / how the sceptic’s chart was created, please read the whole post: http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/2012/08/25/skeptics-stinky-skeletons-from-their-closet/

    1. Galileo discovered sun spots.

      My grandfather, Edison Pettit, who worked with Dr. Hubble and was next door neighbors, both of these gentlemen set up a private observatory to study sun spots. I used to play there and even camped there when visiting as a small child.

      My father supervised the first Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak.

    1. Bruce,

      He loses all credibility when he makes such statements, when there is a historical record and a method for recording sunspots in paper using a pinhole in a box. I did that when I was in third grade and a I am now 75 years old. Astronomer use that technique long ago. I recommend readers check out The Maunder Minimum and the variable Sun-Earth Connection by Professor Willie Soon and Steven Yaskell/ The evidence of sun-spots in clearly drawn, pun intended.

      1. Dear Russ, science is, checking and double checking – if you, or any of your visitors can see sunspots trough a pinhead, or by any other method, from the earth – I will eat my computer – without computer, i cannot be on the internet. Happy Easter to everybody!

  3. Russ said: ‘’ I have built and used pinhole projectors to observe sun spots with my grand son’’

    Russ, because they are pressed to come up with the truth about their ‘’sunspots records for the last 1000y – they fabricated /picked on Galileo; because he had a telescope.. That same post was pointed to me by that Dutch astronomer Swalgaard… because of pressure – they will keep fabricating evidences on the subject, to be all over the net..
    .
    Russ, I have more modern telescope than Galileo, I know what telescope can and cannot do. We tried for two years to build up filters – until it gets all black, just to discriminate the flashes of light and expose any sunspots, doesn’t work.

    In the sky every kinds of illusions are created, by secondary reflections of sunlight from the ground. Apart from black, every object reflects some light, to some degree. Lakes and the sea reflect sunlight into the sky as a mirror – if there is an island, or ships in that ‘’projection’’ will be seen as dark spots = they are mirages in the sky, nothing to do with the spots on the sun. In a crystal clear swimming-pool – you see as marble reflections, as if there are stripes on the sun; they are all illusions. Sunlight bounces and disperses from every atom and molecule in the sky- reason is daylight before the sun can be seen on the horizon b]that’s why you can see inside your house, even though is no direct sunlight in

    To see the real sunspots: needs from a satellite, first to ‘’magnify’’, with complex sets of filters, to discriminate flashes, AND even then needs computer manipulation – and they came up with beautiful picture of the surface of the sun beautiful, I have seen it on TV few times
    B] even Swalgaard, as a ‘’Skeptic’’ admits that sunspots don’t make any difference to the earth’s temperature. Time will prove everything… I wish I can speak better English, and I wish I had more time to spend on the net…

  4. Wow. Amazing.

    The sun spot=warming more idea began 50 years ago. It is the climatologists wanting to worry about ‘global warming’ that have been big deniers of this truth. After Galileo drew the sun spots which infuriated the Church, other astronomers wanted to see this but they vanished!

    And this was called ‘the Little Ice Age’. Only when my grandfather who began observing the sun back in 1880, was viewing the sun, did the spots resume to his astonishment.

    1. emsnews, ”Galileo got into trouble with the clergy and the Vatican because he stated that: ”the earth is orbiting the sun, not the other way”

      emsnews, compare that sentence; with your sentence about the silly sunspots

      2] there are many more sunspots at the moment, than before = overall the ”GLOBAL” temp is not different – when most of the sunspots disappear – if it doesn’t get cooler; would you then admit that: sunspots are ”Skeptic’s water pistol – firing blanks at the opponents”?

      the truth: sunspots may produce extra warmth on the earth, BUT, vertical winds increase = cooling increases and ”overall” temp stays the same. Because the ”Skeptics” use those childish hypothesis – they are shooting themselves in the foot…
      b] judging by crop production – to invent LIA…. when every farmer knows that: crop production can be affected by many things == the Warmist love and prosper on skeptics like that (read my post suggested above, you will see)

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