School of Earth and Environmental Studies, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia Department of Geoecology and Palaeogeography, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, Lublin, Poland
The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threat- ened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept respon- sibility for their projections.
Copy of Paper is HERE.
The paper has this to say about The Sun’s Influence:
The sun is the major control of climate, but not simply by irradiation, and not by irradiation modified by greenhouse gases. Nobody can deny that climate varies, so what causes variation in energy gained from the sun?
Milankovitch cycles result from changes in the distance to the sun, but more important are sun spots and solar cycles. There is a very good cor- relation of sunspots and climate. Periods of low sunspots go with colder climate. The probable mechanism was discovered by Svensmark et al. (2007). During periods of low solar activity (solar minima), more cosmic rays reach Earth, poten- tially creating ultra-small aerosol particles which are precursors to cloud condensation nuclei. This causes more low level cloud formation, more low level clouds means more sunlight reflected back into space, which in turn means less heating of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Archibald (2007) pointed out that the longer a solar cycle lasts, the cooler the following solar cycle will be. Solar cycles are normally 11 years long, but solar cycle 23 lasted 12.5years. Solar Cycle 24 has start- ed and we can expect serious cooling. Solar Cycle 23 seems to resemble most closely Solar Cycle 4, and if the trend continues we should be heading for a Dalton Minimum. Ken Schatten, the solar physicist with the best track record in predicting solar cycles, suggests we could be heading for a Maunder Minimum. There is also a De Vries cycle of 210 years, and the last one was 201 years ago, so the next one is due. If the two cycles are superimposed it will be even colder.
I have been examining the multiple solar cycles for years and have arrived at a similar conclusion. If the two cycles are superimposed we are going to need some warm clothes, but the real danger is much shorter growing seasons, resulting in food shortages. Stay Tuned.