Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

Dr. Norman Page,  PhD in Geology, has a long post on Watts Up With That is summarized below. Full post is HERE

3. Summary

  1. Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
  2. Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
  3. Built in cooling trend until  at least 2024
  4. Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035  – 0.15
  5. Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100  – 0.5
  6.  General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
  7. By 2650  earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
  8. The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial  – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
  9. Warning !!  There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.

I welcome the readers thoughts on Dr Pages analysis.

4 thoughts on “Global Cooling – Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions

  1. David April 3, 2013 / 3:09 am

    The thing I worry about is that when the LIA started the Vikings were farming Greenland and temperatures were 1-2C higher than today. We don’t need a Maunder Minimum to get back to LIA temperatures, a Dalton Minimum will do. We also have a few more people to feed than during the LIA.

    • chillguy33 April 3, 2013 / 6:12 pm

      Well said, David. Permit me to emphasize: there are several billion more humans in some degree of peril – then lived during the LIA.

  2. gjrebane April 4, 2013 / 8:19 am

    Who is going to be tracking the achievement of these numerical prognostications. Without a tracking effort that quickly establishes a recognizable and defendable trend, the political impact of this work will be zero.

    • chillguy33 April 4, 2013 / 1:55 pm

      Excellent point, girebane. We probably could document as many as 5 to 10 thousand premature deaths resulting from unanticipated cold associated with the solar minimum which we are apparently experiencing! Documentation, for the figures I mentioned, is rather anecdotal by any standards. More needs to be done, as you suggest. So far, the UK, Europe in general, and Northern Asia are impacted.

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