Volcano activity of December 17, 2012 – Too much to summarize in a title

Russ Steele

Increased volcanic activity has been associated with global cooling, the questions has always been which came first, the cooling or the volcanic activity.  We may soon learn the answer.

More volcano news HERE  

The question is, is this significant to the on set of the Next Grand Minimum. Your thoughts.

Real Science

Antarctic sea ice area has been above normal every day for the past 14 months.

ScreenHunter_351 Dec. 16 07.12

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

During the month when Antarctic ice set an all-time record high, NSIDC featured an article describing how missing sea ice threatened penguins.

National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

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Global Warming — It Was the Sun

SOLAR IRRADIANCE MODULATION OF EQUATOR-TO-POLE (ARCTIC) TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE VARIATION ON MULTI-DECADAL TIMESCALES

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Using thermometer air temperature records for the period 1850 to 2010, we present empirical evidence for a direct relationship between total solar irradiance (TSI) and the Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) surface temperature gradient (EPTG). Modulation of the EPTG by TSI is also shown to exist, in variable ways, for each of the four seasons. Interpretation of the positive relationship between the TSI and EPTG indices suggests that solar-forced changes in the EPTG may represent a hemispheric-scale relaxation response of the system to a reduced Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient, which occurs in response to an increasing gradient of incoming solar insolation. Physical bases for the TSI-EPTG relationship are discussed with respect to their connections with large-scale climate dynamics, especially a critical relationship with the total meridional poleward energy transport. Overall, evidence suggests that a net increase in the TSI, or in the projected solar insolation gradient which reflects any net increase in solar radiation, has caused an increase in both oceanic and atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic in the warm period since the 1970s, resulting in a reduced temperature gradient between the Equator and the Arctic. We suggest that this new interpretative framework, which involves the extrinsic modulation of the total meridional energy flux beyond the implicit assumptions of the Bjerknes Compensation rule, may lead to a better understanding of how global and regional climate has varied through the Holocene and even the Quaternary (the most recent 2.6 million years of Earth’s history). Similarly, a reassessment is now required of the underlying mechanisms that may have governed the equable climate dynamics of the Eocene (35 to 55 million years ago) and late Cretaceous (65 to 100 million years ago), both of which were warm geological epochs. This newly discovered relationship between TSI and the EPTG represents the “missing link” that was implicit in the empirical relationship that Soon (2009) recently demonstrated to exist between multi-decadal TSI and Arctic and North Atlantic climatic change. 

There is more to this story, the recently released AR5 draft indicates that some scientist are coming to the realization of what may of us knew all along, the major climate driver in the planet is the sun. The above paper is more evidence.

On the Cusp: Kyiv has not seen such heavy snowfall for 130 years

During the last two days, wet snow in Kyiv exceeded an index that had been recorded for 130 years of weather observations, the press service of the Kyiv City State Administration with reference to the Hydrometeorological Centre reports.
“During December 11-12, Kyiv had a complex of severe weather phenomena, including snow and wet snow on wires and trees, which had exceeded previously recorded index for the entire period of meteorological observations in the capital since 1881,” the press service noted.

According to the forecasters, as of December 12, the snow depth amounted to 45 cm.

For December 11-12, the total precipitations numbered 42 mm, and in general, it has amounted to 103 mm since the beginning of December. Before that, the maximum daily precipitation was recorded in December of 1930 – 41 mm, and monthly – 116 mm in December of 1937.

According to the Hydrometeorological Centre, there will be a drop in temperature in the coming days.

Source: http://www.blackseagrain.net/about-ukragroconsult/news-bsg/forecasters-kyiv-has-not-seen-such-heavy-snowfall-for-130-years

I have looked at the data for multiple sites in the Sierra and there is very little danger of not having winter snows. Yes some years more than others, but in the long term there has not been a significant trend according to Dr Christ in his 100 year analysis.

Real Science

As the World Warms, the Future of Skiing Looks Bleak

By 2050, Sierra Nevada winter snowpack may have decreased by as much as 70 percent from average levels of today; in the Rockies, the elevation of full winter snow cover may increase from 7,300 feet today to 10,300 feet by the year 2100; in Aspen, the ski season could retreat at both ends by a total of almost two months; and throughout the Western United States, average snow depths could decline by anywhere between 25 and—yep—100 percent.

These, of course, are just visions of wintertime future produced by climatologists and their computers

As the World Warms, the Future of Skiing Looks Bleak | Off the Road

Had these geniuses bothered to look at actual data, they would know that winter snow extent is increasing

ScreenHunter_152 Dec. 12 11.14

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

One might also remember that Texas had their snowiest winter…

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More: When Are Snow Storms More Than Weather?

When will we recognize that a collection of storms are more that just your average snow storm?

H/T to Ice Age Now for the links.

When Are Snow Storms More Than Weather?

When will we recognize that a collection of storms are more that just your average snow storm?

Hat tip to Ice Age Now for the links.

Watts Up With That?

Have we hit solar max?

NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.

Latest Sunspot number prediction

 

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Sea Level Decline and Global Cooling

Russ Steele

According to geologists there is ample evidence that as glaciers and ice fields build up, sea levels drop. In the distant past these declining sea levels created land bridges between islands and in one case continents during the last ice age.  Humans and bears walked across the Bering Strait the relatively narrow and shallow strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in Alaska, when sea leveld were 400 feet lower than today.

A recently study published by the American Metrological Society reported that Greenland’s ice fields have increased by 12% since the little ice age, with an increase between1840-1996 making the trend 30% higher than that of 1600-2009, suggesting an accelerating accumulation rate. More HERE.

This would suggest that sea level rise should be slowing, as the ice field build up traps the water in the ice. P. Gosselin recently posted this study at the NoTricksZone.

Meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls: Sea Level Rise Has Slowed 34% Over The Last Decade!

German veteran meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls here has done an analysis of sea level rise. Contrary to claims made by fringe alarmist physicists, we see that sea level rise has decelerated markedly since 2003.

slow_sea_level_rise

It appears that those living on beaches around the world can relax a bit, as the sea level rise that started as the last ice age come to an end.  If we have another grand minimum, it may start a sea level decline creating more beach front for those living on the ocean.