Smallest Sunspot Cycle in 80 Years, and ENSO is Headed South

Russ Steele

NASA’s David Hatherway has published his latest Sunspot Number Prediction:

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 99 in February of 2013. We are currently about three years into Cycle 24. Increased activity in the last few months has raised the predicted maximum and moved it earlier in 2013. The current predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 80 years.

More details here.

Steve Goddard, has published the five year running mean for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

 As you can see it is heading south.  The question is, are these two events related and what does it mean for future climate change. We know from history that lower solar cycles bought cooler temperatures on the earth. Only now are we beginning to explore the ocean temperature relationship to sunspot cycles, and long term climate change. It is clearly more than changes in CO2 levels predicted by NASA’s James Hansen.  The ENSO is going south, while the CO2 levels are still headed north.  They are not related.


4 thoughts on “Smallest Sunspot Cycle in 80 Years, and ENSO is Headed South

  1. erl happ December 31, 2011 / 9:57 pm

    ENSO is not climate neutral as some would have us believe. Rather it is the Pacific Ocean manifestation of climate change in action.

    As can be seen here: we have La Nina dominance since 2008 when solar cycle 23 ended.

    There is no widely accepted explanation as to what causes ENSO. So lets not assume that we really understand the processes by which the climate changes.

  2. Russ December 31, 2011 / 10:09 pm


    Thanks for the link and the ENSO insight. Last year the ENSO brought us lots of snow, this year the third driest December in years. No clue as to what is next.

  3. Pål Brekke January 4, 2012 / 7:05 am

    For those interested in the Sun and the Sun-Earth connection (+ Northern lights) my new popular science book has been released.

    “Our Explosive Sun – A Visual Feast of Our Source of Light and Life”.

    Our Explosive Sun includes 143 color illustrations and photos of the Sun, several of which were made especially for the book and have never been published before. Additional material, available via Springer Extras, includes a large number of animations and video material. A PowerPoint presentation of the book is a useful resource for teachers.”

    More info, electronic version and sample pages:

    Best regards


  4. Russ January 8, 2012 / 10:05 pm


    Thanks for the invitation and information.

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