Skeptics Being Skeptical of Skeptics Discover Government Zombie Weather Stations

Russ Steele:

It may have been cooling when the computer said warming. Stay tuned, this is going to be interesting. This is cross posted from http://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/

Originally posted on Sierra Foothill Commentary:

One Skeptic said that Government was altering 40% of climate data records.

Last week, the mainstream media was abuzz with claims by skeptical blogger Steve Goddard that NOAA and NASA have dramatically altered the US temperature record.

Other Skeptics said the first Skeptic was wrong. But on farther investigation it was discovered that there was a major bug in the US Historical Climate Change Network data base used to calculate the historical temperature changes in the US. The computer programs were continuing to calculate temperatures for station that were closed, using nearby stations that were compromised by siting issues to calculate a zombie temperature.  In some cases the program was substituting calculated data, when the real data was available in the station record.

Anthony Watts has the full story HERE, demonstrating that the scientific method works when confirmation bias is constrained.

What is going on is that the USHCN…

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Maunder and Dalton Sunspot Minima

Russ Steele:

See Willis’ Challenge at the bottom of the post. This is a very challenging analysis.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

In a recent interchange over at Joanne Nova’s always interesting blog, I’d said that the slow changes in the sun have little effect on temperature. Someone asked me, well, what about the cold temperatures during the Maunder and Dalton sunspot minima? And I thought … hey, what about them? wiki 400 years of sunspot observationsI realized that like everyone else, up until now I’ve just accepted the idea of cold temperatures being a result of the solar minima as an article of faith … but I’d never actually looked at the data. And in any case, I thought, what temperature data would we have for the Maunder sunspot minimum, which lasted from 1645 to 1715? So … I went back to the original sources, which as always is a very interesting ride, and I learned a lot.

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Solar Update June 2014 – The sun is still slumping along

Russ Steele:

“It seems that Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude of 7 remains the only one in the public domain. The reputational risk for solar physicists in making a prediction remains too great.”

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

The following is a series of graphs that depict the current and past state of the sun.

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New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick:  A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.

Highlights

► A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
► A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations.
► Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
► A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.

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A sign of cooling? New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

From McGill University

New permafrost is forming around Twelvemile Lake in Alaska, but researchers have concluded that this permafrost will have disappeared by the end of the century due to continued climate change.

Researchers from McGill and the U.S. Geological Survey, more used to measuring thawing permafrost than its expansion, have made a surprising discovery. There is new permafrost forming around Twelvemile Lake in the interior of Alaska. But they have also quickly concluded that, given the current rate of climate change, it won’t last beyond the end of this century.

Twelvemile Lake, and many others like it, is disappearing. Over the past thirty years, as a result of climate change and thawing permafrost, the lake water has been receding at an alarming rate. It is now 5 metres or 15 feet shallower than it would have been three decades ago. This is a big change in a very short…

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It’s The Evidence, Stupid!

Russ Steele:

Willis Eschenbach on another quest for the facts makes for some interesting reading, there may not be a 11 year solar cycle evident in the earths climate record. Any ideas, on what causes climate cycles if it is not the sun?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I hear a lot of folks give the following explanation for the vagaries of the climate, viz:

thumb its the sunIt’s the sun, stupid.

And in fact, when I first started looking at the climate I thought the very same thing. How could it not be the sun, I reasoned, since obviously that’s what heats the planet.

Unfortunately, the dang facts got in the way again …

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Dial M for Maunder

Russ Steele:

I have been writing about cooling since 2006, when I wrote a short paper on cooling cycles. Details HERE.  See the discussion below. We are in the Next Grand Minimum camp as the sun spots decline.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

maunder-sunspot-activityGuest essay by David Archibald

The Maunder Minimum was not completely devoid of sunspots, as shown by the following graphic using data from SIDC. Will global warming be attenuated due to our current low solar activity?

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