Is It The Sun?

Jack Dini writing in the Canada Free Press:

We may be witnessing the sun’s last dying gasps before entering into a long slumber. The impact of that slumber on Earth’s climate remains the subject of growing scientific speculation. (1)

In 2008 William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, in a controversial paper that contradicted conventional wisdom and upset global warming theorists, predicted that sunspots could more or less disappear after 2015, possibly indicating the onset of another Little Ice Age. They stated, “The occurrence of prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global temperatures on the Earth.” The Maunder Minimum lasted for approximately 70 years from about 1645 to 1715, and was marked by bitter cold, widespread crop failures, and severe human privation. (2)

There has been increasing evidence in recent years to support this supposition that global warming is linked with solar activity.

In 2011, three papers suggested the Earth could be heading for a ‘little ice age’ as solar activity drops once again. (3)

Solar effects could bring on little ice ages

Other research also confirmed that solar effects could bring on little ice ages. Sarah Ineson and her colleagues report that changes in the Sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation coincided with observed cold winters over southern Europe and Canada between 2008 and 2011. (4)

And Katja Matthes and colleagues report that simulations with a climate model using new observations of solar vulnerability suggests a substantial influence of the Sun on the winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere. (5)

A 2014 paper by Chinese scientists reported the impact of carbon dioxide on climate change may have been overstated with solar activity giving a better explanation of changes in the Earth’s temperature. The paper found ‘a high correlation between solar activity and the Earth’s averaged surface temperature over centuries,’ suggesting that climate change is intimately linked with solar cycles rather than human activity. Indeed, the study says that the ‘modern maximum’ – a peak in solar activity that lasted much of the last century corresponds very well with an increase in global temperatures. (6)

Russian scientists foresee an even more dramatic situation. They predict that a little ice age will begin in 2014. (7)

In their book, The Neglected Sun, authors Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Luning pose that temperatures could be two-tenths of a degree lower by 2030 as a result of an anemic sun, which would mean warming getting postponed far into the future.

Note that these reports are from researchers around the world.

The rest of the article is HERE with the references.

 

Posted in Analysis, Dalton, History, Maunder | 5 Comments

Recent paper finds 1950-2009 Solar Grand Maximum was a ‘rare or even unique event’ in 3,000 years

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Sun said to be “bi-modal”

While many, including the IPCC, suggest the modern Grand Maximum of solar activity from 1950-2009 has nothing to do with the 0.4C global warming measured over that time frame, it does seem to be unique in the last three millennia.

from CO2 Science:A 3,000-Year Record of Solar Activity

What was done

According to Usoskin et al. (2014), the Sun “shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions.” Now, however, in an attempt to overcome such uncertainties, in a Letter to the Editor published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, Usoskin et al. “present the first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity” covering the past 3,000…

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NOAA – 28,504 Low Max Records Set in Last 365 Days

Russ Steele:

Are we on the cusp of the next grand minimum?

Originally posted on sunshine hours:

28,504 Low Max Records were set in last 365 days according to the NOAA.

A “Low Max” means that the maximum temperatures for the day was the lowest it has ever been.

This indicates daytime cooling.

Only 13205 High Max records were set. That is  over a 2:1 ratio. Brrr.

LowMax_2014_July_24

(h/t IceAgeNow)

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The Sun Has Gone Quiet

Details at theSI Weather, where I have selected a segment which may be of interest blog readers.

solar-stuff-gifConsequences of a weak solar cycle

First, the weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.

Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.

Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.

Posted in Cosmic Rays, Dalton, History, Maunder, Solar | 5 Comments

Coldest Antarctic June Ever Recorded

Russ Steele:

Next Grand Minimum’s do not just arrive complete, they creep in with setting records one year, then again and again over a generation. This maybe a stating point for the Next Grand Minimum.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

Antarctica continues to defy the global warming script, with a report from Meteo France, that June this year was the coldest Antarctic June ever recorded, at the French Antarctic Dumont d’Urville Station.

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A Colder Climate is a Drier Climate

Russ Steele:

Cold air brings more drought than warm air. Why do the warmest insist that warm air and droughts are our biggest danger?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest essay by David Archibald

In trying to understand how the US agricultural system will respond to lower solar activity, and thus a posited colder climate, we have to go way back. As far back as the 1970s in fact when it was still possible for academics to publish books and papers on the effects of climatic cooling. In 1977, Reid Bryson and Thomas Murray published a book entitled Climates of Hunger. The book is old enough that Stephen Schneider is credited with reviewing the manuscript, from his time as a cooling alarmist. 

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Peak solar geomagnetic activity shows a ~66% decline over the past 3 solar cycles

According to solar experts, the “general consensus is that we’ve passed the peak” of the current ~11-year solar cycle. If solar geomagnetic activity has also peaked for the current solar cycle, the Ap index of geomagnetic activity declined about 66% so far at solar maxima over the past three solar cycles. The Ap index is one of many indicators of solar activity including total solar irradiance, sunspots, radio flux, and several others, and has particular relevance to the Svensmark cosmic ray theory of climate.

Solar geomagnetic activity shields galactic cosmic rays from Earth, which according to Svensmark’s theory, nucleate cloud formation. It will be interesting over the next several years to see if this decline in solar geomagnetic activity is found to increase cloud formation and potentially surface cooling.

ap index

Hat Tip to HockeySchtick

In the past, a decline in solar activity has resulted in a cooler planet. Stay Tuned!

 

Posted in Analysis, Solar | 1 Comment