Cooling Kills, Prepare for More Cold!

Media outlets other than climate change blogs are beginning to take notice that we maybe in for some multi-year cold spells. This is from Tom Harris and Dr. Madhav Khandekar writing at PJ Media

In the past few years we have seen a dramatic demonstration of the deadly effects of prolonged cold weather. From Chicago to China, Egypt to Argentina, India to the Antarctic, new low temperature and snowfall records have been set.

This has led to severe hardship for millions — and increased death rates.

The first half of this year’s Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter season was especially brutal. December 2013 and January 2014 were the third-coldest Decembers and Januaries in the past 30 years averaged over the contiguous 48 United States, with temperatures plummeting to −10°C in Atlanta and −26°C in Chicago. Residents of North East India struggled with unusually severe snow and −10°C temperatures without home heating. Snow and extreme cold also impacted the Kashmir Valley in India, where many elderly and very young people died of hypothermia. At the time of this writing, most of India is two to five degrees C colder than usual, a serious problem when 95% of all Indian homes lack central heating.

In mid-December, Cairo experienced its first snowfall in over a century, and Jerusalem was hit by a snowstorm called the “fiercest in 20 years.” On December 17, 59% of the contiguous United States was snow-covered, a level the National Weather Service claims has not been seen on that date in at least a decade.

Contrary to the claims of groups such as Ecology Ottawa — which last week held an event titled “the Future of Snow and Skiing in a Warming World” — winter snow cover in the NH has gradually increased since 1967.

Not just during this winter season has weather been unusually cold. March 2013 was the coldest month for Berlin in 100 years. In the same month, low temperature records were set in the United Kingdom, and UK Office for National Statistics reported: “An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 — a 29% increase compared with the previous winter.”

All-time low temperature records were also set in Antarctica in 2013. As demonstrated by the global warming research mission aboard the MV Akademik Schokalskiy — the Russian ship stuck in Antarctic ice for two weeks starting on Christmas Day, 2013 — southern sea ice is now more extensive than at any time in the modern-day record.

At the opposite pole, summer sea ice increased by almost 2.4 million square kilometers during 2013 over 2012, the largest year-to-year increase since satellite records began.

The 2011/12 winter was especially severe in Eastern Europe, where temperatures plunged below −40°C and hundreds of people died.

Overall, the NH has witnessed four severe winters since 2000: 2002/03, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2009/10. Most operational forecasters agree that much of this is unprecedented in recent history.

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this shouldn’t be happening. The IPCC asserted in their Fourth Assessment Report (2007) that, as an impact of the carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced global warming that activists say is still going on:

There is likely to be a decline in the frequency of cold air outbreaks (i.e., periods of extreme cold lasting from several days to over a week) in NH winter in most areas.

Always looking for environmental phenomena to blame on human activities, the White House now says the opposite of the IPCC: man-made global warming caused this winter’s extreme cold. IPCC forecasts indicate that it should have warmed 0.3°C in the past fifteen years. Instead, global warming stopped 17 years ago. Indeed, 134 climate experts from 18 countries wrote in their as-yet-unanswered November 24, 2012 open letter to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon:

Global warming that has not occurred cannot have caused the extreme weather of the past few years.

Read the rest HERE, but this is the money paragraph:

Of particular concern are the warnings from solar scientists that over the next three decades, we are headed toward significant global cooling as the sun weakens into a grand minimum. The last time the sun was as weak as solar experts predict will occur starting after 2030, the Earth was in a particularly cold phase of the Little Ice Age that lasted from about 1350-1850, a period when there was great misery around the world.

Posted in Analysis, History, Maunder, Weather | 5 Comments

An end to the ‘Modern Warm Regime’ identified from TSI data?

Russ Steele:

Only time will tell, but this may be another indicator that we are entering the next grand minimum.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Dr. Sam Outcalt : Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Michigan writes in with an analysis of the recently revised TSI Data from the University of Colorado as mentioned on WUWT here . He notes that elements of his analysis align with some notable changes in global temperature.

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Hi Anthony:

I did a Hurst ReScaling of the Revised TSI Data from the University of Colorado.

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New Temp and Snow Records for January 2014

Record-cold-31Jan141

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Should We Be Worried?

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I chanced to plot up the lower tropospheric temperatures by broad latitude zones today. This is based on the data from the satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU), as analyzed by the good folks at the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Here are the results, divided into tropical, extratropical, and polar. I’ve divided them at the Arctic and Antarctic Circles at 67° North and South, and at the Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer at 23° N & S.

uah lower troposphere temperature

Figure 1. Satellite-based microwave sounding unit temperatures (red line) from the University of Alabama Huntsville. Blue line shows a loess smooth, span=0.4. Data from KNMI (NCDF file, 17 Mb)

So … is this something to worry about?

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IR Expert Speaks Out After 40 Years Of Silence : “IT’S THE WATER VAPOR STUPID and not the CO2″

Russ Steele:

It is sad that we have to wait until a scientist retires before we get the truth.

Originally posted on Real Science:

Mike Sanicola  says:

I’m a professional infrared astronomer who spent his life trying to observe space through the atmosphere’s back-radiation that the environmental activists claim is caused by CO2 and guess what? In all the bands that are responsible for back radiation in the brightness temperatures (color temperatures) related to earth’s surface temperature (between 9 microns and 13 microns for temps of 220K to 320 K) there is no absorption of radiation by CO2 at all. In all the bands between 9 and 9.5 there is mild absorption by H2O, from 9.5 to 10 microns (300 K) the atmosphere is perfectly clear except around 9.6 is a big ozone band that the warmists never mention for some reason. From 10 to 13 microns there is more absorption by H2O. Starting at 13 we get CO2 absorption but that wavelength corresponds to temperatures below even that of the south pole…

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Apology for Slow Posting Comments

Dear Readers,

I was troubled to find a large collection of un-posted comments. I was relying on WordPress notifications and missed your comments.  I will try to be more attentive in the future.

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Continued Cold Puts Food Supply at Risk

One of the consequences of a Grand Minimum coupled with a Little Ice Age is the long term impact on food production. As the cool settles in and the ground freezes food-producing land becomes scarcer, food-growing seasons become shorter, and the world becomes a much more arid and less hospitable place. Food shortages and social unrest has followed previous cold periods and will again.

As I have written before climate change in America’s food basket will be one of the early indicators that the next grand minimum has arrived and the consequences are emanate.

The continental U.S. has been cooling over the last 16 years, at a rate of minus 3.8°F per century rate.

corn belt cooling

The NOAA/NCDC climate record reveals, the breadbasket areas of American have been cooling for a longer period – 17 years. The images below reflect the empirical evidence for the primary U.S. corn growing areas., which is cooling at a minus 4.0°F/century rate.

 

 

Corn belt Map

If this cooling trend were to continue, it would spell disaster for the world’s hungry. Let’s hope ‘the pause’ in global warming does not last much longer as it unfortunately seems to project a cooling regime over the U.S.

 

Here is the February forecast:

cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2014012400_m2

Posted in Analysis, Survival, Weather | 4 Comments